IMF Research on Commodity Prices
1991–Present

2006

1. Kpodar, Kangni
   2006
   "Distributional Effects of Oil Price Changes on Household Expenditures: Evidence from Mali"
   IMF Working Paper 06/91 (March).
   Full text



2. Zalduendo, Juan
   2006
   "Determinants of Venezuela's Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate"
   IMF Working Paper 06/74 (March).
   Full text



3. Bayoumi, Tamim and Martin Mühleisen
   2006
   "Energy, the Exchange Rate and the Economy: Macroeconomic Benefits of Canada's Oil Sands Production"
   IMF Working Paper 06/70 (March).
   Full text



4. Krichene, Noureddine
   2006
   "World Crude Oil Markets: Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock"
   IMF Working Paper 06/62 (March).
   Full text



5. Khan, Mohsin S. and Axel Schimmelpfennig
   2006
   "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Wheat?"
   IMF Working Paper 06/60 (March).
   Full text



6. Cashin, Paul and C. John McDermott
   2006
   "Properties of International Commodity Prices: Identifying Trends, Cycles and Shocks"
   in Agricultural Commodity Markets and Trade: New Approaches to Analyzing Market Structure and Instability, ed. by Alexander Sarris and David Hallam, Cheltenham: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and Edward Elgar, pp. 16-30.



7. Bowman, Chakriya and Aasim Husain
   2006
   "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures versus Judgement" in Agricultural Commodity Markets and Trade: New Approaches to Analyzing Market Structure and Instability, ed. by Alexander Sarris and David Hallam, Cheltenham: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and Edward Elgar, pp. 61-88.
   Full text of earlier Fund working paper (04/41)



8. Sommer, Martin
   2006
   "The Boom in Nonfuel Commodity Prices: Can It Last?"
   World Economic Outlook (September)
   Full text

2005

1. Hunt, Benjamin
   2005
   "Oil Price Shocks: Can They Account for the Stagflation in the 1970s?"
   IMF Working Paper 05/215 (November).
   Full text



2. Kumah, Francis and John Matovu
   2005
   "Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance"
   IMF Working Paper 05/171 (September).
   Full text



3. Koranchelian, Taline
   2005
   "The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in a Commodity Exporting Country: Algeria's Experience"
   IMF Working Paper 05/135 (July).
   Full text



4. Krichene, Noureddine
   2005
   "A Simultaneous Equation Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets"
   IMF Working Paper 05/32 (February).
   Full text



5. Sommer, Martin
   2005
   "Will the Oil Market Continue to Be Tight?"
   World Economic Outlook (April).
   Full text

2004

1. Cashin, Paul, Luis Céspedes and Ratna Sahay
   2004
   "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate"
   Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 75, pp. 239-68.
   Full text of earlier Fund working paper (02/223)



2. Cashin, Paul
   2004
   "Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade"
   IMF Research Bulletin, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 1-4.
   Full text



3. Bowman, Chakriya and Aasim Husain
   2004
   "Forecasting Commodity Prices: Futures Versus Judgement"
   IMF Working Paper 04/41, (March).
   Full text

2003

1. Cashin, Paul, Luis Céspedes and Ratna Sahay

2003
"Commodity Currencies"
Finance and Development, Vol. 40, No. 1 (March), pp. 45–48.
Full text

2. Chen, Yu-Chin and Kenneth Rogoff

2003
"Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles"
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 60, pp. 133-60.
Full text of earlier Fund working paper (02/27)

3. Davis, Jeffrey, Rolando Ossowski, and Annalisa Fedelino

2003
Fiscal Policy Formulation and Implementation in Oil-Producing Countries
International Monetary Fund.
Abstract of Fund book

4. Hossain, Shahabuddin

2003
"Taxation and Pricing of Petroleum Products in Developing Countries: A Framework for Analysis with Application to Nigeria"
IMF Working Paper 03/42 (February).
Full text

5. Katz, Menachem, Bartsch, Ulrich, Malothra, Harinder and Milan Cuc

2003
Lifting the Oil Curse: Improving Petroleum Revenue Management in Sub-Saharan Africa
International Monetary Fund.
Abstract of Fund book

2002

1. Brunner, Allan

2002
"El Niño and World Primary Commodity Prices: Warm Water or Hot Air?"
Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 84, pp. 176–83.
Full text of earlier Fund working paper (00/203)



2. Cashin, Paul, C. John McDermott and Alasdair Scott

2002
"Booms and Slumps in World Commodity Prices"
Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 69, pp. 277–96.
Full text of earlier Fund working paper (99/155)


3. Cashin, Paul and C. John McDermott

2002
"The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability"
IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 49, pp. 175–99.
Full text


4. Gupta, Sanjeev, Benedict Clements, Kevin Fletcher and Gabriela Inchauste

2002
"Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries"
IMF Working Paper 02/140 (August).
Full text


5. Hunt, Benjamin, Peter Isard and Douglas Laxton

2002
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices"
National Institute Economic Review, No. 179, pp. 87–103.
Full text of earlier Fund working paper (01/14)


6. Spilimbergo, Antonio

2002
"Copper and the Chilean Economy, 1960-98"
Journal of Policy Reform, Vol. 5, pp. 115–26.
Full text of earlier Fund working paper (99/57)

2001

1. Cashin, Paul and Ximena Cheetham

2001
"World Commodity Prices: Data and Research"
IMF Research Bulletin, Vol. 2, pp. 16.
Full text


2. Federico, Giulio, James Daniel and Benedict Bingham

2001
"Domestic Petroleum Price Smoothing in Developing and Transition Countries"
IMF Working Paper 01/75 (May).
Full text


3. James, Daniel

2001
"Hedging Government Oil Price Risk"
IMF Working Paper 01/185 (November).
Full text


4. Kenneth Rogoff, Kenneth Froot and Michael Kim

2001
"The Law of One Price Over 700 Years"
IMF Working Paper 01/174 (November).
Full text

2000

1. Bayoumi, Tamim, Ximena Cheetham, Hali Edison, Benjamin Hunt, Peter Isard, Manmohan Kumar, Maitland MacFarlan, David Robinson and Blair Rourke

2000
"The Impact of Higher Oil Prices on the Global Economy"
Research Department, International Monetary Fund.
Full text


2. Cashin, Paul, Hong Liang and C. John McDermott

2000
"How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?"
IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 47, pp. 177–217.
Full text


3. Cuddington, John and Hong Liang

2000
"Will the Emergence of the Euro Affect World Commodity Prices?"
IMF Working Paper 00/208 (December).
Full text

1999

1. Cashin Paul, Hong Liang and C. John McDermott

1999
"Do Commodity Price Shocks Last Too Long for Stabilization Schemes to Work?"
Finance and Development, Vol. 36, No. 3 (September), pp. 40–43.
Full text


2. Cashin, Paul, C. John McDermott and Alasdair Scott

1999
"The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices"
IMF Working Paper 99/169 (December).
Full text

1998

1. Liang, Hong

1998
"The Volatility of the Relative Price of Commodities In Terms of Manufactures Across Exchange Regimes: A Theoretical Model"
IMF Working Paper 98/163 (November).
Full text


2. Bulir, Aleš
   1998
   "The Price Incentive to Smuggle and the Cocoa Supply in Ghana, 1950-96"
   IMF Working Paper 98/88 (June).
   Full text

1997

1. Herrero, Alicia G. and John Thornton

1997
"World Commodity Prices as a Forecasting Tool for Retail Prices: Evidence from the United Kingdom"
IMF Working Paper 97/70 (June).
Full text

1996

1. Collier, Paul and Jan Willem Gunning

1996
"Policy Toward Commodity Shocks in Low-Income Countries"
IMF Working Paper 96/84 (August).
Summary


2. Dupont, Dominique and V. Hugo Juan-Ramon

1996
"Real Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices"
IMF Working Paper 96/27 (April).
Summary


3. Keane, Michael and Eswar Prasad

1996
"The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis"
Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 389–400.
Summary of earlier Fund working paper (95/37)


4. Wickham, Peter

1996
"The Volatility of Oil Prices"
IMF Working Paper 96/82 (August).
Summary

1995

1. Keane, Michael and Eswar Prasad
   1995
   "The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis"
   IMF Working Paper 95/37 (April).
   Summary

1994

1. Borensztein, Eduardo and Carmen Reinhart

1994
"The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices"
IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, pp. 236–61.
Summary of earlier Fund working paper (94/9)


2. Borensztein, Eduardo, Mohsin Khan, Carmen Reinhart and Peter Wickham

1994
The Behavior of Non-Oil Commodity Prices
IMF Occasional Paper 112 (September).
Summary


3. Gupta, Sanjeev and Walter Maher

1994
"Taxation of Petroleum Products: Theory and Empirical Evidence"
IMF Working Paper 94/32 (March).
Summary


4. Lele, Uma, James Gockowski and Kofi Adu-Nyako

1994
"Economics, Politics, and Ethics of Primary Commodity Development: How Can Poor Countries in Africa Benefit the Most?"
IMF Working Paper 94/23 (February).
Summary


5. Reinhart, Carmen and Peter Wickham

1994
"Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?"
IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 41, pp.175–213.
Summary of earlier Fund working paper (94/7)

1992

1. Kumar, Manmohan
   1992
   "Econometric Analysis of Industrial Country Commodity Exports"
   IMF Working Paper 92/4 (January).
   Summary



2. Kumar, Manmohan
   1992
   "Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices"
   IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, pp. 432–61.
   Summary of earlier Fund working paper (91/93)



3. DeRosa, Dean
   1992
   "Increasing Export Diversification in Commodity-Exporting Countries: A Theoretical Analysis"
   IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 39, pp. 572-95.
   Summary of earlier Fund working paper (91/105)

1991

1. Boughton, James
   1991
   "Commodity and Manufactures Prices in the Long Run"
   IMF Working Paper 91/47, (May).
   Summary



2. Reinhart, Carmen
   1991
   "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices"
   IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 38, pp. 506–24.
   Summary of earlier Fund working paper (90/91)



3. Gupta, Sanjeev and Kenneth Miranda
   1991
   "Commodity Booms and Government Expenditure Responses"
   IMF Working Paper 91/44 (May).
   Summary