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IMF Conference

IMF High–Level Roundtable: Financial Crisis and Sovereign Risk—Implications for Financial Stability

March 18, 2011, Washington, D.C.


A High-Level Roundtable to discuss the theme of “Financial Crisis and Sovereign Risk: Implications for Financial Stability” will take place at the IMF’s Headquarters in Washington, D.C. on Friday, March 18 2011. The event will bring together senior policymakers from the ministries of finance, central banks, and financial regulatory agencies of the G20, as well as leading representatives from multilateral organizations, the private sector, and the academia. Seating is limited to pre-registered invitees, but the program, background materials, and final proceedings of the event will be available on this site.

The main objective of the Roundtable is to better understand sovereign risk and its implications for stability in the banking sector and capital markets. The linkages with the ongoing regulatory reforms will also be assessed to support the current emphasis on better supervision. To this end, the program has been divided into three sessions, each of which explores a different dimension of sovereign risk in the context of the current financial crisis: (i) spillovers between sovereign risk and banking sector stability; (ii) sovereign risk and its outlook for issuers and debt capital markets; and (iii) sovereign risk and its impact on ongoing financial regulatory reforms. Participants will also draw out innovative regulatory initiatives and practical policy recommendations to mitigate the impact of heightened sovereign risk on financial stability.

The forceful response at the national and supranational level to address sovereign risks and strengthen confidence in the financial system, including through the provision of detailed information on bank balance sheets, helped to stabilize funding markets and mitigate risks, but conditions remain fragile.” (IMF Global Financial Stability Report, October 2010).


Financial Crisis and Sovereign Risk—Implications for Financial Stability
Friday, March 18, 2011
8:00–8:45 a.m. Registration and Breakfast
8:45–9:00 a.m. Welcome by José Viñals, Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF

Introductory Remarks: Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Managing Director, IMF
9:00–9:15 a.m. Current Fiscal Outlook: Carlo Cottarelli, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
9:15–10:45 a.m. Session 1: Spillovers between Sovereign Risk and the Banking Sector Stability
  The session sets the stage by exploring the linkages between sovereign risk and the banking sector, how these have evolved during the crisis, and how policy makers should deal with these linkages.

Moderator: José Viñals, Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF


Panelists:
  • Stephen G. Cecchetti, Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements;
  • Simon Johnson, Ronald A. Kurtz Professor of Entrepreneurship, MIT Sloan School of Management;
  • Soledad Núñez Ramos, Director General, Spanish Treasury and Financial Policy
  • Francesco Papadia, Director General Market Operations, European Central Bank;
  • Simon Potter, Executive Vice President of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.


Open Roundtable Discussion (10:15 - 10:45a.m.)
10:45–11:15a.m. Coffee break
11:15 a.m.–12:45 p.m. Session 2: Sovereign Risk and Its Outlook for Issuers and Debt Capital Markets
  This session examines how the demand and the supply side of debt capital markets should adjust to conditions of heightened sovereign risk, elevated funding needs of sovereigns and corporates, and fundamental shifts in global asset allocation strategies.

Moderator: Olivier Blanchard, Economic Counselor and Director, Research Department, IMF

Panelists:

  • Willem H. Buiter, Chief Economist, Citigroup;
  • Elga Bartsch, European Chief Economist, Morgan Stanley;
  • Francesco Garzarelli, Director of Macro and Markets Research, Goldman Sachs;
  • Matthew Rutherford, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance, United States Department of the Treasury;
  • Christophe Frankel, Chief Financial Officer and Deputy Chief Executive Officer, European Financial Stability Facility.


Open Roundtable Discussion (12:15 – 12:45 p.m.)
12:45–2:15 p.m. Sovereign Risk, Sustainability and Buybacks

Lunch for Roundtable delegates (by invitation only)

Special Speaker: Kenneth Rogoff, Thomas D. Cabot Professor of Public Policy, Harvard University
2:15–3:15 p.m. Session 3: Sovereign Risk and Its Impact on Ongoing Financial Regulatory Reforms
  This session considers the implications of sovereign risk for the ongoing financial regulatory reforms, and the likely effects of planned reforms on sovereign risk and its management.

Moderator: Reza Moghadam, Director, Strategy, Policy, and Review Department, IMF.

Panelists:

  • Julie Dickson, Superintendent, Canadian Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions;
  • Charles A. E. Goodhart, Emeritus Professor of Banking and Finance, London School of Economics and Political Science;
  • Aerdt Houben, Director, De Nederlandsche Bank, Financial Stability Division;
  • Liu Mingkang, Chairman, China Banking Regulatory Commission.


Open Roundtable Discussion (3:15 – 3:45 p.m.)
3:45–4:00 p.m. Key Roundtable Conclusions

Bibliography

The following papers may prove useful background reading for the conference.

Disclaimer

The website contains background readings for the Roundtable on Financial Crisis and Sovereign Risk—Implications for Financial Stability. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.


Allen, M., C. Rosenberg, C. Keller, B. Sester and N. Roubini (2002). “A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis,” IMF Working Paper, WP/02/210. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02210.pdf

Avdjiev, Stefan, Christian Upper, and Nicholas Vause (2011). “Highlights of the BIS International Statistics,” BIS Quarterly Review, March. http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1103.htm

Blanchard, Olivier, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Paolo Mauro (2010). “Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy,” IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/03. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2010/spn1003.pdf

Caceres, C., V. Guzzo and M. Segoviano (2010). “Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion, or Fundamentals?,” IMF Working Paper, WP/10/120 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10120.pdf

Elga Bartsch, D. Antonucci, A. Mares, and J. Fels (2011). “Sovereign Debt Crisis - A Roadmap for Investors,” Morgan Stanley Research Europe. http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2011/20110209-Wed.html

Das, U., M. Papapioannou, G. Pedras, F. Ahmed, and J. Surti (2010). “Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications,” IMF Working Paper, WP/10/280. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10280.pdf

De Bolle, Monica, Bjorn Rother, and Ivetta Hakobyan (2006). “The Level and Composition of Public Sector Debt in Emerging Market Crises,” IMF Working Paper, WP/06/186. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp06186.pdf

De Broeck, Mark, and Anastasia Guscina (2011). “Government Debt Issuance in the Euro Area: The Impact of the Financial Crisis,” IMF Working Paper, WP/11/21. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1121.pdf

Fender, Ingo, and Patrick McGuire (2010). “European Banks’ US Dollar Funding Pressures,” BIS Quarterly Review, June. http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1006h.pdf

Garzarelli, Francesco (2011). “EMU Sovereign Crisis: Is the End in Sight?” Goldman Sachs Global Economics, February.

International Monetary Fund (2009). “Crisis-Related Measures in the Financial System and Sovereign Balance Sheet Risks”, IMF Board Paper. http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009/073109.pdf

International Monetary Fund (2010). “Fiscal Exit: From Strategy to Implementation,” Fiscal Monitor, April. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2010/02/fmindex.htm

International Monetary Fund (2010). “Guiding Principles for Managing Sovereign Risk and High Levels of Public Debt,” Stockholm Principles, September. http://www.imf.org/external/np/mcm/Stockholm/principles.htm

International Monetary Fund (2010). “Sovereigns, Funding, and Systemic Liquidity,” Global Financial Stability Report, October. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2010/02/index.htm

McGuire, Patrick, and Peter, Götz Von (2009). “The US Dollar Shortage in Global Banking and the International Policy Response,” BIS Working Paper, No. 291. http://www.bis.org/publ/work291.pdf

Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2009). This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press.