A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their average levels during March 1-18, 1997 except for the bilateral rates among the European exchange rate mechanism (ERM) currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary polices in industrial countries, see Box 2); that the average price of oil will be $19.69 a barrel in 1997 and $18.36 a barrel in 1998, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 6.0 percent in 1997 and 6.1 percent in 1998. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available at the end of March 1997.
The following conventions have been used throughout the World Economic Outlook:
... to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
-- to indicate that the figure is zero or negligible;
- between years or months (for example, 1994-95 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (for example, 1994/95) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
"Billion" means a thousand million; "trillion" means a thousand billion.
"Basis points" refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to 1/4 of 1 percentage point).
Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown are due to rounding.
As used in this report, the term "country" does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.