The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana

June 1, 2001

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Silvia Sgherri, and Maitland MacFarlan. The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2001) accessed September 18, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper provides an overview of the potential macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, focusing on the key channels through which the pandemic is likely to affect the economic outlook and on the uncertainties involved. To estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS, a dual-economy equilibrium model is constructed and simulated under different scenarios. Depending on exactly how AIDS affects the outlook, GDP growth is projected to fall from around 5½ percent a year without the pandemic to between 1½ and 2½ percent a year with AIDS. Non-negligible redistribution effects across sectors and labor skill categories are also likely to arise. Finally, the paper draws attention to the potential effects of HIV/AIDS on the long-term fiscal position of Botswana, highlighting the need for increased international support and/or lower drug prices so that the widespread introduction of anti-retroviral drug treatments is feasible.

Subject: Capital accumulation, Expenditure, Health, Health care spending, HIV and AIDS, Labor, Labor markets, National accounts, Production, Total factor productivity, Wages

Keywords: Africa, Aids, AIDS baseline, AIDS case, AIDS disaster, AIDS insurance, AIDS scenario, Capital accumulation, GDP, Health care spending, HIV and AIDS, Saving, Sub-Saharan Africa, Total factor productivity, Wages, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

42
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2001/080
Stock No:

WPIEA0802001
ISBN:

9781451850307
ISSN:

1018-5941

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