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Author/Editor:
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Abrego, Lisandro ; Österholm, Pär
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Publication Date:
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February 01, 2008
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Electronic Access:
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Free Full text
(PDF file size is 480KB).
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
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Summary:
This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variancedecomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most importantfactors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 percent of the variance in Colombian GDP growthrespectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used toanalyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we showthat the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growthwould be non-negligible but still a mild decline by historical standards.
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Order a print copy
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Series:
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Working Paper No. 08/46
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Subject(s):
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Economic growth | Colombia | Private investment | Forecasting models
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Author's Keyword(s):
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Bayesian VAR |
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English
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Publication Date:
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February 01, 2008
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Format:
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Paper
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Stock No:
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WPIEA2008046
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Pages:
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24
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Price:
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US$18.00 )
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Please address any questions about this title to
publications@imf.org
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