The Declining Importance of Tradable Goods Manufacturing in Australia and New Zealand: How Much can Growth Theory Explain?

Author/Editor: Hunt, Ben
Publication Date: January 01, 2009
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: In this paper, the IMF's new Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the contribution of unbalanced growth to the decline in the share of goods production in Australia and New Zealand. The simulation results suggest that faster productivity growth in the tradable goods sector in Australia, New Zealand, and their major trading partners accounts for a significant portion of the relative decline in the importance of goods production. Over the 1995 to 2004 period, unbalanced growth explains more than 80 percent of the decline in goods production in both countries.
Series: Working Paper No. 09/16
Subject(s): Capital goods | Australia | New Zealand | Productivity | Industrial production | Services sector | Economic growth | Economic models | Trade models | Time series | Cross country analysis

Author's Keyword(s): Deindustrialization | Unbalanced Growth | Australia | New Zealand
Publication Date: January 01, 2009
Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2009016 Pages: 15
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