Estimating Poland's Potential Output : A Production Function Approach

Author/Editor:

Corrado Macchiarelli ; Natan P. Epstein

Publication Date:

January 1, 2010

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.

Series:

Working Paper No. 10/15

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

January 1, 2010

ISBN/ISSN:

9781451962093/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2010015

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

21

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