Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR : Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration

Author/Editor:

Changchun Hua ; Philip Ng ; R. S Craig ; Raymond Yuen

Publication Date:

December 24, 2013

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Offshore use of the renminbi expanded rapidly in Hong Kong SAR as China sought to develop an international role for its currency while maintaining capital controls. This prompts two questions addressed in this paper: How far advanced is renminbi internationalization? And, what role does Chinese capital account liberalization play? The first is addressed by testing the extent of integration of offshore and onshore markets for the renminbi using a Threshold Autoregression (TAR) model and finds that there are substantial unexploited arbitrage opportunities. A VAR model is used to indentify factors contributing to this limited market integration and finds that capital controls and shifts in global market sentiment explain much of the divergence in onshore and offshore renminbi exchange rates. To address the second question, the paper shows how capital account measures have been used to promote offshore use of the renminbi more actively in the wake of the global financial crisis, but that this was done asymmetrically with controls on inflows eased to a greater extent than on outflows. It concludes that a more balanced liberalization process will sustain progress in renminbi internationalization.

Series:

Working Paper No. 13/268

Subject:

English

Publication Date:

December 24, 2013

ISBN/ISSN:

9781484332948/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2013268

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

25

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