Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East: What Can We Learn from the Past?

Author/Editor:

Randa Sab

Publication Date:

June 11, 2014

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Using narrative-based country-case studies, war episodes in the Middle East were examined to assess their economic impact on conflict and neighboring economies. The paper found that conflicts led to a contraction in growth, higher inflation, large fiscal and current account deficits, loss of reserves, and a weakened financial system. Post-conflict recovery depended on the economic and institutional development of the country, economic structure, duration of the war, international engagement, and prevailing security conditions. The net economic impact on neighboring countries varied according to their initial economic conditions, number and income level of refugees they hosted, economic integration, and external assistance.

Series:

Working Paper No. 2014/100

Subject:

Balance of payments Central banks Current account deficits Economic sectors Exchange rates Financial sector Foreign exchange Inflation International reserves Prices

English

Publication Date:

June 11, 2014

ISBN/ISSN:

9781498310895/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2014100

Pages:

32

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