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Contents |
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Preface |
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Chapter I.
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Overview (86KB pdf file) |
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Assessment of Global Financial Stability |
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Risks in the Period Ahead |
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Policy Measures to Mitigate Risks |
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Risk Transfer to the Household Sector |
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Financing Prospects and Risks Facing Emerging Market Countries |
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Chapter II.
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Global Financial Market Developments (928KB pdf file) |
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Market Developments |
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Developments and Risks in Mature Financial Markets |
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Developments and Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets |
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Emerging Market Financing |
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Banking Sector Developments in Emerging Markets |
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Structural Issues in Mature Markets |
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References |
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Chapter III.
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Household Balance Sheets (184KB pdf file) |
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Household Balance Sheets |
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Household Investment and Risk Management Behavior |
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Need to Communicate, Educate, and Facilitate Advice |
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Concluding Observations |
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References |
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Chapter IV.
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Corporate Finance in Emerging Markets (238KB pdf file) |
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Recent Trends in Corporate Finance |
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Structural Determinants and Obstacles |
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Vulnerabilities Associated with the Level and Composition of Corporate Finance |
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Policy Issues |
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Appendix |
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References |
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Glossary (59KB pdf file) |
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Annex: Summing Up by the Chairman (56KB pdf file) |
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Statistical Appendix (1,066KB pdf file) |
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Boxes |
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2.1 |
Gauging Global Liquidity Conditions |
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2.2 |
Pension Fund Update |
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2.3 |
Insurance Industry Update |
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2.4 |
Credit Derivatives Market Came of Age in 2004 |
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2.5 |
Collective Action Clauses |
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2.6 |
Issuing Global Bonds in Local Currencies: Toward the Absolution of
Original Sin? |
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2.7 |
Distance-to-Default Measure of Bank Soundness |
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3.1 |
Longevity Bonds |
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4.1 |
Finance and Economic Growth: A Brief Review of the Evidence |
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4.2 |
New Firm-Level Evidence on Hedging Activities in the Nonfinancial Sector in Latin America |
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Tables |
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2.1 |
Emerging Market Financing |
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2.2 |
Emerging Market Countries: Selected Bank Financial Soundness Indicators |
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2.3 |
Recent Inflows, Performance, and Leverage of Hedge Funds |
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3.1 |
Household Balance Sheet Volatility Measures |
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3.2 |
Mortgage Markets in Selected Industrialized Countries: General Characteristics |
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4.1 |
Structural Determinants of Corporate Leverage, 1993–2003 |
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4.2 |
Cost of Equity Capital Estimates by Country |
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4.3 |
Bankruptcy Costs and Legal Rights, 2004 |
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4.4 |
Investor Protection by Country |
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4.5 |
Use of IFRS for Domestically Listed Firms, by 2005 |
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4.6 |
Countries with a Code of Good Corporate Governance |
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4.7 |
Estimates of Average Firm-Level Private Benefits of Control Across Countries |
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4.8 |
Corporate Debt Structures |
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4.9 |
Nonfinancial Private Sector Firms: Sample Size for 2002 |
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Figures |
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2.1 |
Global Real Interest Rates and Excess Liquidity |
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2.2 |
Policy Rates |
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2.3 |
U.S. Tightening Cycles: Movement in 10-Year Treasury Yields |
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2.4 |
Real Yields on Inflation-Indexed Bonds |
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2.5 |
U.S. Economic Growth and Treasury Yields |
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2.6 |
Foreign Ownership of U.S. Securities |
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2.7 |
High-Grade Corporate Bond Spreads |
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2.8 |
High-Yield Corporate Bond Spreads |
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2.9 |
Speculative Grade Corporate Default Rates |
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2.10 |
Credit Derivatives Market |
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2.11 |
Price-Earnings Ratios |
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2.12 |
U.S. Equity and Benchmark Government Yields |
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2.13 |
German Equity and Benchmark Government Yields |
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2.14 |
Implied Volatilities |
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2.15 |
Equity Volatility |
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2.16 |
Equity Volatility and Corporate Spreads |
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2.17 |
Implied Versus Actual Volatility |
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2.18 |
United States: External Balance |
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2.19 |
Emerging Asia Reserve Accumulation |
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2.20 |
Asia (Excluding Japan) Currency Index |
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2.21 |
Chinese Yuan 12-Month Forward Rates |
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2.22 |
United States: 10-Year Rate Spread and Current Account Balance |
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2.23 |
Currency Volatilities |
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2.24 |
EMBIG Sovereign Spreads |
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2.25 |
Risk-Return Trade-off |
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2.26 |
Emerging Market Credit Bucket Spread Difference |
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2.27 |
EMBI Global Performance, 2004 |
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2.28 |
Forecast and Actual EMBIG Spread |
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2.29 |
Differentials Between Corporate and Emerging Market Spreads |
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2.30 |
Foreign Participation Rates in Local Markets |
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2.31 |
Trading Volumes in Local Emerging Market Instruments |
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2.32 |
Correlations Between Local and External Debt |
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2.33 |
Emerging Market Financing |
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2.34 |
Quarterly Emerging Market Net Issuance |
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2.35 |
Emerging Market Bond Issuance |
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2.36 |
Share of Emerging Market Bond Issuance |
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2.37 |
Emerging Market Bond Issuance by Currency |
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2.38 |
Emerging Market Equity Issuance |
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2.39 |
Emerging Market Syndicated Loan Commitments |
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2.40 |
Foreign Direct Investment |
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2.41 |
Asian Emerging Markets: Market Indicators |
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2.42 |
Emerging Europe: Market Indicators |
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2.43 |
Latin America: Market Indicators |
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2.44 |
Arab Light/Heavy, Brent, and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Pricing |
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2.45 |
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Price Volatility |
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2.46 |
Implied Volatility of Oil Futures Prices and Crude Oil Positions of
Noncommercial Traders |
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2.47 |
Value at Risk (VaR) for Complete Portfolio of Banks: Total VaR and VaR
Without World Market and Local Market Effects (VaR-Beta) |
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2.48 |
Bank and LCFI Portfolios: Value at Risk Without World Market and
Local Market Effects (VaR-Beta) |
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2.49 |
Japanese Banks: Value at Risk (VaR) Without World Market and Local
Market Effects (VaR-Beta) |
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2.50 |
Total Diversification Effect and Diversification Without Market Effects
(Diversification-Beta) for LCFIs and Commercial Banks |
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2.51 |
Probability of Observing a Default Over a Two-Year Period |
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2.52 |
Insurance Portfolio Value at Risk (VaR) |
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3.1 |
Household Sector: Net Worth and Net Financial Assets in Domestic Currencies |
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3.2 |
Household Sector: Total Asset Composition |
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3.3 |
Japan: Total Asset Composition by Household Groups |
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3.4 |
United States: Total Asset Composition by Household Groups |
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3.5 |
Netherlands: Distribution of Net Worth by Income Quintiles |
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3.6 |
Household Sector: Real Estate Values and Mortgage Debt |
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4.1 |
Corporate Debt Outstanding by Instrument in Emerging Markets |
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4.2 |
Corporate Leverage and External Debt in Emerging Markets |
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4.3 |
Bank Credit Outstanding |
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4.4 |
Banking Sector in Emerging Markets |
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4.5 |
Corporate Bonds Outstanding |
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4.6 |
Composition of Outstanding Corporate Domestic Debt |
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4.7 |
Equity Issuance |
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4.8 |
Internal Financing of Capital Expenditure |
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4.9 |
Outstanding Bank Loans and Securities |
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4.10 |
Dollarization of Assets and Liabilities in the Nontradable Sector in Latin America |
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4.11 |
Bankruptcy Risk Indicators: Probability of Default and Altman's Z-Scores |
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4.12 |
Foreign Currency Mismatch in the Nontradable Sector in Latin America |