Contents 

 Preface 

Part
1 136k pdf file

Section I. Introduction  
Overview 
 What's New? 
 Box  
 1.  MULTIMOD: Summary of the
Mark III Generation  


Section II. The Philosophy and
Basic Structure of MULTIMOD  
Philosophical Underpinnings 

 History and Country
Disaggregation  
 Commodity Disaggregation and
Behavioral Units  
 The Supply Side and the
UnemploymentInflation  
 
Nexus 
 Consumption, Investment, and
International Trade  
 Fiscal Policy: Government
Spending, Taxes, and Debt  
  Monetary Policy 
 Oil, Primary Commodities, and
Nontradables  
 Financing Constraints and
Absorption for Developing 
  Countries 
 Accounting Identities, Arbitrage
Conditions, Interest Rates, 
  and Exchange Rates 
 Boxes 
 2.  The Spillover Effects of
Government Debt  
 3.  Government
Expenditure Multipliers Under Alternative Monetary Policy Reaction Functions 
 Tables 
 Box 2. Effects of a FiveYear
Temporary Tax Cut That Permanently Increases the DebttoGDP Ratio of the United States
by 10 Percentage Points 
 Box 3. Effects of a 1 Percent of GDP
Permanent Increase in Government Expenditure in Japan Under Alternative Monetary Policy
Reaction Functions 

Part
2 84k pdf file

Section III. The SteadyState Analogue Model and Mark
III Solution Methodology 
An Example of Parallel Equations in
DYNMOD and 
  SSMOD 
 The SteadyState Model as an
Interpretive Device  
 On Using SSMOD to Construct the
Control Solution  
 On Using SSMOD to Obtain
Terminal Conditions  
 The Mark III Solution
Methodology  
 Boxes 
 4. Government Debt, Net Foreign
Liabilities, and the Real Exchange Rate 
 5. Traditional Solution Techniques
and the MARK III Methodology 
 Table 
 Box 4. LongRun Effects of
Temporary Tax Cuts That Permanently Increase DebttoGDP Ratios by 10 Percentage
Points 
 Figure 

 Box 5. Convergence Properties of
Mark III  

Part
3 167k pdf file

Section IV. The InflationUnemployment
Nexus  
The ShortRun TradeOff Between
Inflation and 
  Unemployment 
 Implications of Linear and Convex
Phillips Curves  
 Specification of the Mark III Phillips
Curve  
 Intrinsic and Expectational
Dynamics  
 Proxies for Inflation
Expectations  
 Estimates of the Mark III Phillips
Curve  
 The Dynamic Effects of Output
Gaps on Unemployment  
 The CPI Equations and Import Price
PassThrough  
 Boxes 
 6.  Model of a Convex Phillips
Curve  
 7.  A Simple
PriorConsistent Filter for Measuring the Natural Rate 
 8.  Asymmetries and
CountrySpecific Differences in the Real and Nominal Effects of Shocks 
 Tables 
 1.  Phillips Curve Model 

 2.  Unemployment Equations 

 3.  CPI Equations 
 4.  Estimated Effects on
the CPI of a 1 Percent Increase in Import Price 
 Box 8. The Asymmetric Effects of
Positive and Negative Money Supply Shocks 
 Figures 

 1.  A Convex ShortRun Phillips
Curve  
 2.  Unemployment and Output
Gaps  
 Box 7. Estimates of the Natural Rate
of Unemployment  

Part
4 204k pdf file

Section V. Consumption and Saving Behavior: A
LifeCycle Perspective 
The Basic Model 

  Consumption 
  The Behavior of Dynastic
Households  
  The LifeCycle Behavior of
Disconnected Generations  
 The Small Open Economy
Case  
 The Closed Economy Case 

 Extensions 
  Liquidity Constraints 

  Population and Productivity
Growth  
 Income Profiles: Theory and
Calibration  
  Specification Issues 

  Data and Estimation 

  SteadyState Calibration 

 Estimates of the Mark III
Consumption Function  
 Appendix. Fiscal Policy Effects in a
Small Open Economy  
 Box  
 9.  The Global CrowdingOut Effects
of Government Debt 
 Tables 
 5.  Small Open
Economy Model: Behavioral Equations and Laws of Motion 
 6.  Closed Economy
Model: Behavioral Equations and Laws of Motion 
 7.  Extended Closed
Economy Model with Liquidity Constraints and Population and Productivity Growth 
 8.  Relative Income
Profiles: Nonlinear Least Squares Estimates 
 9.  Theoretical and
Projected SteadyState Age Distributions 
 10.  Estimated
Parameters of the Mark III ConsumptionSaving Model 
 Box 9. SteadyState Effects of
Simultaneous 10 Percentage Point Increases in Ratios of Government Debt to GDP of All
Industrial Countries 
 Figures 

 3.  Estimated Income Profiles 

 4.  Higher Public Debt
Through a Temporary Tax Cut in Canada 
 5.  Higher Public Debt
with Permanently Higher Fiscal Spending in Canada 

Part
5 142k pdf file

Section VI. Investment  
Appendix. Investment, Output, and
Interest Rate 
  Responses to Demand and Supply
Shocks 
 Figures 

 6.  Impulse Responses in Relation to
the Investment Block  


Section VII. International Trade  
Imports 
 Exports 
 Adding Up of World Trade and
Current Account Balances  
 Tables 
 11.  Volume Equations for
Imports  
 12.  Bilateral Total Exports,
1996  
 13.  Volume Equations for
Exports  
 14.  Export Price Equations 

 Figures 

 7.  ImportActivity Ratios and Relative
Import Prices  
 8.  ExportActivity
Ratios and Real Competitiveness Indices 

Part
6 77k pdf file

Section VIII. Extensions of the
Core Model  
Extensions of Country
Coverage  
 Other Modifications 

  Fiscal Consolidation 

  Endogenous Productivity
Growth  
  Military Expenditures 

 Boxes 
 10.  Steps Necessary to
Integrate Additional Industrial Countries 


References
