| Contents |
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| | Preface |
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File
1
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file | I. |
"Boom and Bust" in Asset Markets in the 1980s: Causes and
Consequences
Garry J. Schinasi and Monica Hargraves
Asset Prices and Nonfinancial Sector Balance Sheet
Adjustments
Process of Accumulation in the 1980s
Asset Price Deflation and Its Macroeconomic Consequences
Balance Sheet Adjustment in the Financial Sector
Structural Changes in Financial Systems
Experiences in Selected Countries
Financial Change and Monetary Policy
Role of Monetary Policy in Asset Price Inflation
Financial Liberalization and Monetary Policy
Lessons for the 1990s
Bibliography |
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II. |
How Accurate Are the World Economic Outlook Projections?
José M. Barrionuevo
A simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion
Forecasting Accuracy of the World Economic Outlook
The Seven Major Industrial Countries
Industrial Country Groups
Developing Countries
Time-Series Forecasts
Forecasting Accuracy of the Time-Series Models
Comparison of Forecasts
An Adjustment Method
Concluding Remarks
Bibliography |
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file | III. |
An Extended Scenario and Forecast Adjustment Model for Developing
Countries
Manmohan S. Kumar, Hossein Samiei, and Sheila Bassett
Main Features of the Model
Domestic Sector
Private Absorption
Government Sector
Money, Prices, and the Exchange Rate
External Sector
Exports of Goods and Nonfactor Services
Imports of Goods and Nonfactor Services
Transfers and Net Investment Income
Capital Account
Simulation Experiments
Increase in Government Expenditure
Expansion in the Money Supply
A Fall in the Nominal Price of Oil
Faster Industrial Country Growth
Appendix I. Countries and Regions in the Developing
Country Model
Appendix II. Developing Country Model
Bibliography |
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IV. |
Unemployment and Wage Dynamics in MULTIMOD
Leonardo Bartolini and Steve Symansky
The Markup Equation
The Wage Equation
The Unemployment Equation
Estimation
Simulations
Fiscal and Monetary Shocks
Labor Market Shocks
Future Research
Bibliography |
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V. |
An International Comparison of Tax Systems in Industrial Countries
Enrique G. Mendoza, Assaf Razin, and Linda L. Tesar
A Methodology for Computing Effective Average Tax Rates
Description of the Data
Effective Average Consumption Tax Rate
Effective Average Labor Income Tax Rate
Effective Average Capital Income Tax Rate
A Comparison with Previous Work
Stylized Facts of Effective Average Tax Rates
Conclusion
Bibliography |
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Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic
Outlook
Anne Marie Gulde and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas
GDP Weights Based on Exchange Rates
Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parities
Aggregation with GDP Weights Based on Exchange Rates
GDP Weights Based on Purchasing Power Parities
Problems of PPP Index Construction
Intertemporal Extension of Benchmark Data
Estimation of PPPs for Nonbenchmark Countries
Aggregation with GDP Weights Based on PPP
Conclusion
Bibliography
Box 1. Dollar GDP Estimates for China
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