© 1993 International Monetary Fund

December 1993

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World Economic

    Staff Studies for the
    World Economic Outlook 1993

By the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund



File 1
pdf file  
I.   "Boom and Bust" in Asset Markets in the 1980s: Causes and Consequences
Garry J. Schinasi and Monica Hargraves

Asset Prices and Nonfinancial Sector Balance Sheet
   Process of Accumulation in the 1980s
   Asset Price Deflation and Its Macroeconomic Consequences
Balance Sheet Adjustment in the Financial Sector
   Structural Changes in Financial Systems
   Experiences in Selected Countries
Financial Change and Monetary Policy
   Role of Monetary Policy in Asset Price Inflation
   Financial Liberalization and Monetary Policy
Lessons for the 1990s

  II.   How Accurate Are the World Economic Outlook Projections?
José M. Barrionuevo

A simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion
Forecasting Accuracy of the World Economic Outlook
   The Seven Major Industrial Countries
   Industrial Country Groups
   Developing Countries
Time-Series Forecasts
   Forecasting Accuracy of the Time-Series Models
   Comparison of Forecasts
   An Adjustment Method
Concluding Remarks

File 2
pdf file  
III.   An Extended Scenario and Forecast Adjustment Model for Developing Countries
Manmohan S. Kumar, Hossein Samiei, and Sheila Bassett

Main Features of the Model
Domestic Sector
   Private Absorption
   Government Sector
   Money, Prices, and the Exchange Rate
External Sector
   Exports of Goods and Nonfactor Services
   Imports of Goods and Nonfactor Services
   Transfers and Net Investment Income
   Capital Account
Simulation Experiments
   Increase in Government Expenditure
   Expansion in the Money Supply
   A Fall in the Nominal Price of Oil
   Faster Industrial Country Growth
Appendix I. Countries and Regions in the Developing
      Country Model
Appendix II. Developing Country Model

  IV.   Unemployment and Wage Dynamics in MULTIMOD
Leonardo Bartolini and Steve Symansky

The Markup Equation
The Wage Equation
The Unemployment Equation
   Fiscal and Monetary Shocks
   Labor Market Shocks
Future Research

  V.   An International Comparison of Tax Systems in Industrial Countries
Enrique G. Mendoza, Assaf Razin, and Linda L. Tesar

A Methodology for Computing Effective Average Tax Rates
   Description of the Data
   Effective Average Consumption Tax Rate
   Effective Average Labor Income Tax Rate
   Effective Average Capital Income Tax Rate
A Comparison with Previous Work
Stylized Facts of Effective Average Tax Rates

File 3
pdf file  
VI.   Purchasing Power Parity Based Weights for the World Economic Outlook
Anne Marie Gulde and Marianne Schulze-Ghattas

GDP Weights Based on Exchange Rates
   Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parities
   Aggregation with GDP Weights Based on Exchange Rates
GDP Weights Based on Purchasing Power Parities
   Problems of PPP Index Construction
   Intertemporal Extension of Benchmark Data
   Estimation of PPPs for Nonbenchmark Countries
   Aggregation with GDP Weights Based on PPP
Box 1. Dollar GDP Estimates for China