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World Economic
Outlook

    WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS
  World Economic Outlook
   A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
May 1997

1997 International Monetary Fund
The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staffs analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMFs global surveillance activities.
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Contents

Assumptions and Conventions

Preface

Chapter I. Global Economic Prospects and Policies (423k pdf file)
      Advanced Economies
      Developing Countries
      Transition Countries

Chapter II. World Economic Situation and Short-Term Prospects (4953k pdf file)
      Economic Activity, Inflation, and Policy Stances in Advanced
             Economies
      Economic Situation and Prospects in Developing Countries
      Developments and Prospects in Transition Countries
      Financial and Foreign Exchange Markets
      External Payments, Financing, and Debt

Chapter III. Meeting the Challenges of Globalization in the Advanced Economies (4223k pdf file)
      Features of Modern Globalization
      Causes and Implications of Deindustrialization
      Trade and Wages
      Capital Market Integration and Implications for Policy

Chapter IV. Globalization and the Opportunities for Developing Countries (5626k pdf file)
      Forces of Integration
      Implications for Relative Income Patterns and Convergence
      Policies to Boost Growth and Promote Convergence
      Economic Convergence and the Importance of Policy
             Complementarities
      Reaping Gains From Globalization and Avoiding Marginalization

Chapter V. Integration of the transition Countries into the Global Economy (3097k pdf file)
      Liberalization of Trade and Payments
      Trade Liberalization
      Revival and Reorientation of Trade
      Progress with Financial Integration
      Regional Integration Initiatives

Annex
      Globalization in Historical Perspective

Boxes

    1. Revised Country Classification
    2. Policy Assumption Underlying the Projections
    3. Rising Petroleum Prices in 1996
    4. United States: Sources and Implications of Bias in the Consumer Price Index
    5. Problems in the Measurement of Output in Transition Countries
    6. Global R&D Spillovers
    7. Deindustrialization and the Labor Market in Sweden
    8. Ireland Catches Up
    9. Measuring Productivity Gains in East Asian Economies
    10. Stabilization and Reform of Formerly Centrally Planned Developing Economies in East Asia
    11. Normalizing the Transition Countries' Creditor Relations
    12. Foreign Direct Investment Strategies in Hungary and Kazakstan

Statistical Appendix


File 1 (4906k pdf file)
File 2 (5215k pdf file)

Tables

Chapter

  1. 1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  2. 2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
    3. Major Industrial Countries: Questions About Inflationary Pressures
    4. Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
    5. European Union: Convergence Indicators for 1995, 1996, and 1997
    6. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
    7. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
    8. Selected Economies: World Export Market Shares
    9. Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
    10. Developing Countries: Capital Flows
  3. 11. Cost of Air Transportation Telephone Calls, and Computer Price Deflator
    12. Industrial Countries: Growth of Output and Employment
    13. Cross-Border Transactions in Bonds and Equities
    14. Gross Foreign Direct Investment Plus Portfolio Investment
    15. Foreign Exchange Trading
  4. 16. Advanced Versus Developing Countries Including New Industrialized Economies: Diversification of Exports
    17. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Increased Polarization and Reduced Mobility in Cross-Country Relative Income
    18. Developing Countries: Convergence and Growth in Selected Countries
    19. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Policies and Economic Performance
    20. Developing Countries Including Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Relationship Between Policies and Growth, 1985-95 and Conditional Probabilities of Success
  5. 21. Countries in Transition: Progress in Integration and Economic Performance
    22. Countries in Transition: Dollar Wages in Manufacturing or Industry
    23. Countries in Transition: Net Medium- to Long-Term Financial Flows
    24. Countries in Transition: Gross External Debt to Export Ratios
    25. Countries in Transition: Credit Ratings and Country Risk Rankings
    26. Countries in Transition: Net Foreign Direct Investment

Charts

Chapter
  1. 1. World Industrial Production
    2. World Indicators
    3. European Union: General Government Budget Positions
  2. 4. Commodity Prices
    5. Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
    6. Three Major Industrial Countries: Policy-Related Interest Rates and Ten-Year Government Bond Yields
    7. Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Conditions Indices
    8. Selected European Countries: Real Total Domestic Demand
    9. European Union and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence
    10. Selected Asian Countries: Growth in Export Revenues
    11. Selected Countries in Transition: Inflation
    12. Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
    13. Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
    14. United States: Equity Market Capitalization, Price-Earnings Ratio, Dividend Yield, and Yield Gap
    15. Emerging Market Countries: Equity Prices
    16. Elasticity of World Trade with Respect to World Output
    17. Developing Countries and Countries in Transition: External Debt and Debt Service
  3. 18. Selected Advanced Economies: Employment by Sector as a Share of Total Civilian Employment
    19. Selected Advanced Economies: Value Added by Sector as a Share of GDP at Current Prices
    20. Selected Advanced Economies: Value Added in Manufacturing, Constant Prices
    21. Selected Advanced Economies: Balance of Trade in Manufactured Goods
    22. The Changing Structure of Employment
    23. Selected Advanced Economies: Employment
    24. Selected East Asian Economies: Share of Manufacturing in Employment
    25. Selected Advanced Economies: Changes in Ratios of Earnings Deciles
    26. Selected Advanced Economies: Unemployment Rates
    27. Selected Advanced Economies: Foreign Direct Investment Outflows
    28. Selected Advanced Economies: Dispersion of Covered Interest Differentials
    29. Selected Advanced Economies: Mean and Dispersion of Nominal Short-Term Interest Rates
    30. Advanced Economies: U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate and Inflation Differential
    31. Selected Advanced Economies: Mean and Dispersion of Real Short-Term Interest Rates
    32. Selected Advanced Economies: Mean and Dispersion of Nominal Bond Yields
  4. 33. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Trade
    34. Developing Countries: Net Private Capital Flows
    35. Developing Countries: Net Private Capital Flows, 1990-96
    36. Developing, Advanced, and Transition Countries: Current Account Convertibility
    37. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Real Per Capita Income
    38. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Relative Economic Performance
    39. Advanced and Developing Countries: Convergence in per Capita Income, 1965-95
    40. Developing Countries and Asian Newly Industrialized Economies: Convergence in Absolute Income, 1965-95
    41. Selected Economies: Exports, Imports, and per Capita Real Income
  5. 42. Countries in Transition: Ratio of Trade to Output
    43. Central and Eastern European Countries: Composition of Trade by Partner
    44. Selected Countries in Transition: Real Exchange Rates vis--vis U.S. Dollar
    45. Countries In Transition: Medium- to Long-Term Net Financial Flows
Annex

  1. 46. Advanced Countries: Effective Tariff Rates
    47. Selected Countries: External Capital Flows
    48. Selected Major Industrial Countries: Current Account Balances
    49. Selected Countries: Dispersion of Real Interest Rates