Côte d'Ivoire and the IMF

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Côte d'Ivoire—Letter of Intent

Abidjan, August 13, 2001

The following item is a Letter of Intent and a Memorandum of Economic Policies of the government of Côte d'Ivoire. It is being made available on the IMF website by agreement with the member as a service to users of the IMF website. This memorandum describes the policies that Côte d'Ivoire is implementing in the framework of a staff-monitored program. A members's staff-monitored program is an informal and flexible instrument for dialogue between the IMF staff and a member on its economic policies. A staff-monitored program is not supported by the use of the Fund's financial resources; nor is it subject to the endorsement of the Executive Board of the IMF.

Mr. Horst Köhler
Managing Director
International Monetary Fund
700-19th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20431

Dear Mr. Köhler:

In recent years, the considerable fiscal and governance problems experienced by Côte d'Ivoire did not make it possible to achieve the objectives of the three-year program supported under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangement that was approved on  March 17, 1998. The Ivoirien economy has also been faced with an unsettling political climate and the suspension of financial support from major donors and lenders.

Following discussions with Fund staff earlier this year, the government took a number of measures aimed at improving public finance, accelerating structural reforms, and normalizing relations with foreign partners. The budget for 2001 was adopted by parliament in June 2001, and specific measures have been taken since the beginning of the year to improve the financial situation of the electricity and hydrocarbon sectors, and to begin the process of restructuring financial institutions. Discussions on the reform of the coffee and cocoa sectors were also initiated. On the political level, on June 25, 2001, the European Union decided to gradually resume its financial assistance to Côte d'Ivoire.

The government is determined to undertake in 2001 all the actions necessary to reform the economy. Thus, it intends, within the context of an IMF staff-monitored program, to take the appropriate measures to establish a positive track record of policy implementation that would pave the way for discussions on a program that could be supported under the PRGF.

The first attached memorandum summarizes the economic and financial policies that the government intends to implement with a view to achieving the macroeconomic and structural targets it has set for the period July–December 2001. To this end, the government commits itself to provide Fund staff with all information necessary for the purpose of monitoring the implementation of the measures established under the program. A technical memorandum of understanding is also attached.

The government is confident that all necessary measures will be taken to ensure the resumption of economic activity, and to restore normal relations with external partners so as to benefit from their financial support. A program review will be carried out in October 2001.

On that occasion, the government wishes to begin discussions with the Fund on a program that could be supported under the PRGF.

Sincerely yours,

Bohoun Bouabré
Minister of Economy and Finance

Attachments: Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies for the Staff-Monitored Program, for July-December 2001
Technical Memorandum of Understanding

Côte d'Ivoire: Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies for the Staff-Monitored Program,
July–December 2001

August 13, 2001

I.  Introduction

1.  In early 1998, Côte d'Ivoire adopted an adjustment and reform program supported by a three-year arrangement under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF). This program aimed at achieving sustainable economic growth and medium-term financial viability. However, considerable fiscal management and governance problems arose in 1999, exacerbated by a profound political crisis.

2.  The government is determined to take the necessary corrective actions and to intensify its efforts in order to strengthen the public finance situation, accelerate the implementation of structural reforms, improve its financial relations with creditors, and create the conditions for sustained economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire.

II.  Recent Economic and Financial Situation

3.  The economic situation deteriorated markedly in 2000. Real GDP contracted by about 2½ percent, largely owing to the lack of investor confidence, the drop in private consumption, and the lack of external financing in the context of the sociopolitical crisis. The terms of trade continued to deteriorate, thereby exacerbating the decline in real incomes. However, inflation remained moderate, and the consumer price index rose by only 2½ percent on average during the year. The external current account deficit (including official transfers) widened to 5½ percent of GDP, owing to the deterioration in the terms of trade, and the capital account deficit increased because of higher external public debt repayments and a decline in external project financing. As a result, the overall balance of payments deficit rose to CFAF 391 billion (6 percent of GDP), which was financed by the accumulation of external arrears.

4.  The public finances have remained a source of concern, with the sharp deterioration in the treasury cash-flow position leading to a substantial accumulation of new domestic and external payments arrears. Outstanding external arrears on non reschedulable debt rose to CFAF 222 billion (3.3 percent of GDP), while domestic arrears, including DENOs (commitments for which no payment orders have been issued) increased to about CFAF 526 billion (7.8 percent of GDP) at end-2000. The deficit position of the broader public sector, including in particular the energy sector and public financial institutions, made the public finances situation even more fragile.

5.  There were significant delays in the implementation of structural reforms. In particular, the liberalization of petroleum product imports and the privatization of the refinery company (SIR—Société ivoirienne de raffinage) were not carried out as planned. As electricity and petroleum product prices were not adjusted in line with the significant increases in the international prices of oil and gas, deficits totaling an estimated CFAF 57 billion were incurred for the electricity sector and CFAF 40 billion for the SIR and the distribution companies at end-2000. Also, economic governance problems continued. In particular, the claims payable by defaulting exporters to the coffee and cocoa stabilization fund (CAISTAB—Caisse de stabilisation et de soutient des prix des productions agricoles) were not recovered. Moreover, the penalties to be levied on these exporters were not effected.

III.  Staff-Monitored Program for the Period July–December 2001

6.  The objective of the staff-monitored program (SMP) is to restore confidence in macroeconomic management and to establish a track record of policy implementation that will lay the basis for the resumption of an IMF-supported program under the PRGF. The major elements of the SMP are the stabilization of public finances, the implementation of key structural reforms, and the restoration of normal financial relations with all external partners.

7.  Given the uncertainty surrounding the mobilization of external resources and the steep decline in coffee and cocoa production, the SMP does not foresee a resumption of economic growth in 2001. Inflation is forecast at about 4 percent in annual average terms, largely owing to higher prices for food and energy products. The external current account deficit is projected to remain at about 5½ percent of GDP, owing to the weakness of exports.

A.  Public Finances

8.  The restoration of sound public finances is a key component of the SMP. In this context, the government intends to introduce appropriate measures for improving the mobilization of domestic revenues and containing public expenditure. The fiscal program for 2001 is based on realistic projections for revenue collection and on cautious expenditure estimates that are consistent with the assumed absence of external budgetary support. A supplementary budget may be prepared once the new fiscal measures have yielded additional revenues, or the authorities succeed in mobilizing external assistance. Based on the preliminary outturn for the first five months of 2001 and the major revenue mobilization efforts to be carried out in the second half of the year, the fiscal deficit (on a payment order basis, including grants) is programmed at CFAF 79.2 billion, or about 1.2 percent of GDP. This deficit does not cover the broader public sector. The government will take the steps necessary to ensure that the financing requirements of the public enterprises, including those under private management in the energy and the financial sectors, will not jeopardize the fiscal program. Measures to improve the financial position of key sectors are discussed below.

9.  The fiscal projections for 2001 take into account public debt-service obligations amounting to CFAF 624 billion (9.3 percent of GDP, or 49 percent of budgetary revenue). The budget incorporates provisions for the payment of CFAF 252 billion1 to cover scheduled payments due on multilateral debt, leaving a financing gap of CFAF 372 billion (5.5 percent of GDP). This financing gap would result in the accumulation of new external arrears on reschedulable debt (CFAF 210 billion for the full year), as well as external arrears of CFAF 122 billion on nonreschedulable debt accumulated between January and June 2001. A residual financing requirement of CFAF 40 billion represents the scheduled service payments on bilateral nonreschedulable external debt and debt service due to external private creditors over the period July–December 2001. The government will approach its partners with a view to reaching a solution to these arrears problems. In any event, the government will limit external financing to grants or loans on highly concessional terms.

10.  On the revenue side, the government has begun strengthening tax and customs administration. To this end, the government has appointed new directors for the financial administrations and agreed performance contracts for the current year. The action plan of the Directorate-General of the Internal Revenue Service has been updated, and the action plan for customs was approved in July 2001. The specific measures included in these action plans are (i) the strengthening of control procedures; (ii) the reduction of exemptions and improved monitoring of the duty drawback, bonded warehousing, and transit regimes (régimes suspensifs), and the strengthening of inspection teams; (iii) the extension of the minimum 5 percent customs duty to all imports covered by the investment code; and (iv) on-the-job staff training. In addition, in accordance with the fiscal annex to the 2001 budget, a unified 20 percent value-added tax (VAT) rate was introduced on July 2, 2001. The rate of the unified export duty (DUS) was reduced from CFAF 200 per kilogram to CFAF 160 per kilogram effective July 2, 2001. Taken together, these measures should make it possible to improve revenue collection substantially and achieve the tax revenue target of 16.1 percent of GDP in 2001. As regards nontax revenue (mostly oil revenue, privatization proceeds, and telecommunications royalties), where collections were very weak in the first five months of the year, the government will take the necessary steps to ensure that the budgeted amount will be collected.

11.  On the expenditure side, the government's policy is aimed at reigning in spending in order to free the resources required to address the needs of the poorest in the areas of health and education, as well as to maintain and improve basic infrastructure. However, in view of the tight budgetary situation, nonwage current primary expenditure will be reduced by 1 percent in 2001, while investment expenditure will be increased by 20 percent to the equivalent of 4 percent of GDP. The capital budget attaches the highest priority to the development of human resources and basic infrastructure. The wage bill is slated to rise by about 7 percent to CFAF 478 billion (equivalent to 7 percent of GDP and nearly 44 percent of tax receipts), taking into account the implementation, effective June 2001, of the government `s decision in May 2000 to equalize the salary of those teachers recruited after 1990 under a different salary scheme with those recruited earlier. In addition, new hiring is planned in the priority sectors of education (3,114 persons), health (1,081 persons), justice (15 persons), and security (2,000 persons).

12.  The allocation of budgetary resources is in line with the government's major priorities, notably in the social sectors (education and health) and security. These provisions will permit the purchase of textbooks to promote education in poorer areas and strengthen the deployment of neighborhood police. The budget also provides for resources to conduct a feasibility study on the introduction of a universal medical insurance. The government will ensure that the appropriations allocated to the social sectors are used efficiently. Important appropriations have also been made for territorial administration, reflecting the government's desire to strengthen local governments and reinforce the decentralization policy. Expenditure on regular service outlays will be centralized at the Directorate of Government Property in order to enhance efficiency and improve control procedures.

13.  The government recognizes the need to improve budget execution and cash-flow management, with the twofold objective of better monitoring public expenditure and preventing the accumulation of domestic and external payments arrears. The rules governing the budget management system (SIGFIP—Système intégré de gestion des finances publiques) will be rigorously applied. The government undertakes not to incur any extrabudgetary expenditure. To this end, a circular letter from the President of the Republic to members of the government reminded them of their obligation to submit any agreement with financial implications for signature by the Minister of Economy and Finance. Transparency in the management of public finances will be enhanced by continuing the computerization of the expenditure process, ensuring rigorous management of project-related expenditure, introducing rules on the use of budget appropriations, and taking inventories of government property.

14.  Apart from the measures cited above, the government will further strengthen expenditure control and fiscal discipline through the following measures: (i) requiring that all expenditure be effected through SIGFIP; (ii) limiting advances and ensuring the prompt regularization of those that are made; (iii) rationalizing government procurement costs; and (iv) giving the Ministry of Economy and Finance sole authority over the designation and supervision of the directors of administrative and financial affairs (DAAFs—Directeurs des affaires administratives et financières). In this connection, the government is requesting technical assistance from the IMF in the area of public expenditure management. Moreover, the government will ensure the strict limitation of any earmarking of revenue outside budget and treasury channels.

B.  Cocoa and Coffee

15.  In the cocoa and coffee sectors, the government will consolidate the liberalization achieved and continue building an institutional framework supported by all participants in the sector that (i) eliminates any direct government intervention and any direct or implicit financial commitment as regards marketing; (ii) makes it possible to guarantee producers a minimum price for their products; and (iii) introduces a transparent regulatory environment that guarantees free and fair competition at all levels. In particular, no return to a system of export allocations or quotas will be permitted. Furthermore, the government will take measures to avoid monopolistic practices.

16.  The following measures will be taken during the period July-December 2001: (i) completion of the liquidation of the new CAISTAB by September 30, 2001 at the latest, and establishment of the Coffee and Cocoa Marketing Exchange (BCC), which will assume some of the functions being carried out by the new CAISTAB during its liquidation;2 (ii) effective establishment of the Coffee and Cocoa Regulatory Authority (ARCC), responsible for devising and implementing the regulatory framework; and (iii) for the remainder of the 2001/02 crop year, the putting in place of a transitional mechanism to ensure a minimum social price for the producers and a farmgate price that would cover their production costs. The implementation of this transitional arrangement will be monitored by the BCC, while the minimum social price will be set by the ARCC. The technical details of this mechanism will be discussed with the World Bank and participants in the sector.

C.  Energy

17.  The authorities are determined to begin immediately the process of rehabilitating the energy sector so as to eliminate the sizable deficits it has accumulated, reduce the structural costs of operation in the sector, and improve its overall financial transparency. The authorities have prepared, with the assistance of the World Bank, an action plan aimed at achieving these objectives. Three immediate steps are envisaged. First, a 10 percent increase in average electricity tariffs has been introduced with effect from July 15, 2001. These tariffs have been set in a manner that will mitigate its impact on the poor. Second, cost-cutting measures will be identified and negotiated with operators in the sector (estimated at CFAF 12 billion). Finally, on the government side, (i) regular payments for the government's current consumption will be made; (ii) a portion of the VAT collected in the sector (11.1 percent) will be refunded; and (iii) transfers to the budget for payments to cover the guaranteed external debt will be temporarily suspended.

18.  In February 2001, the government adjusted retail petroleum product prices on average by 8.4 percent—a step that will make it possible to eliminate the deficit of SIR incurred in 2000 over a period of 18 months. The authorities will continue to monitor the operation of SIR in order to improve its financial situation. To the extent that the price structure changes as a result of changes in world oil prices, the authorities will take measures to adjust domestic petroleum prices. As regards the liberalization of petroleum product imports, the authorities confirm their desire to continue the import liberalization process. In this regard, they will take the steps necessary to complete the study3 aimed at defining the regulatory framework needed to achieve an orderly liberalization of the oil market and successful privatization of SIR.

19.  The authorities expect rapidly to eliminate cross debts and claims between the government and the energy sector, which will make it possible to restore transparent financial relations and regular budgetary procedures.

D.  Civil Servants' Pension Fund (CGRAE)

20.  Following a comprehensive review of the CGRAE's (Caisse Générale de Retraites des Agents de l'Etat) financial statements and the actuarial evaluation of the pension fund carried out in cooperation with experts from the International Labor Organization, a number of corrective measures have been proposed with a view to restoring the Fund's long-term financial equilibrium. The proposed measures include changes in the retirement age, a broadening of the contribution base, and regular adjustments in the contribution rates for both employers and the employees. The major elements of the reform were discussed and adopted by the Council of Ministers on July 18, 2001. Negotiations will be undertaken with the social partners on the various options, with a view to implementing the reform in 2002. In the meantime, the authorities have already committed the resources required for improving the collection of contributions from state enterprises (entreprises publiques nationales—national public enterprises) and updating the data files of pensioners and the legal framework under which the CGRAE operates.

E.  Reform of the Financial Institutions

21.  The decree stipulating the separation of the CECP (caisse d'épargne et de chèques postauxpostal checking and savings fund) and the postal services was signed on June 16, 2001. The government intends to draw up a reform plan with a view to ensuring the financial viability of the CECP. A preparatory study now under way is aimed at enabling the CECP to be licensed as a financial institution, subject to the supervision of the Banking Commission of the West African Monetary Union (WAMU),. Meanwhile, the CAA (caisse autonome d'amortissement) continues to experience cash-flow problems. The government is committed to formulating a strategic plan for this institution by end-September 2001 on the basis of the recommendations of the ongoing CAA audit. In the meantime, the government will ensure that the CAA adheres to a lending policy that is consistent with the fiscal program and will not prejudice the government's decision on the future of the CAA.

F.  Governance

22.  The government is committed to addressing governance problems promptly and continuing to fight all criminal or corrupt activity. In the case of exporters who have failed to fulfill their export contracts and against whom CAISTAB holds claims, an agreement has been reached on the settlement of claims for the 1994/95 crop season amounting to almost CFAF 4 billion. As regards the CFAF 13 billion in claims for crop year 1998/99, the authorities intend to finalize the payment terms with defaulting exporters in July 2001. The defaulting exporters are expected to pay some 5 percent of their debt by end-September 2001 and undertake to pay the balance over a five-year period. Those who have failed to sign an agreement with the government on this basis by end-July 2001 or who have not paid the treasury the amounts due by end-September 2001 will not be granted export licenses for crop year 2001/02, and the government will initiate collection procedures as may be required.

G.  Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP)

23.  Côte d'Ivoire is in the process of preparing its interim PRSP. In February 2001, the government drew up a timetable for the preparatory work toward developing an overall poverty reduction strategy, with participation by all stakeholders. A methodological workshop on poverty and the approach to the participatory process was held in May 2001; it has been be followed by regional workshops aimed at identifying an action plan to poverty reduction and the modalities of implementing the poverty strategy through a participatory process. The PRSP Monitoring Committee expects to finish drafting the interim PRSP by end-October 2001 and to complete the final version by end-June 2002.

IV.  Prior Actions and Performance Criteria and Benchmarks

24.  To ensure the success of the program, the government has taken the following prior actions: (i) the adoption of a fiscal program for 2001 in line with this memorandum; (ii) an increase in average electricity tariffs of 10 percent; and (iii) reduction of the export tax on cocoa to CFAF 160 per kilogram.

25.  Program execution will be monitored through the monthly quantitative benchmarks indicated in Table 1, namely on (i) the government's tax revenue; (ii) the basic primary fiscal balance of the government; (iii) net bank credit to the central government; (iv) the government's outstanding verified domestic arrears; (v) outstanding external payments arrears of the central government; (vi) the amount of DENOs; and (vii) the ceiling on new nonconcessional debt contracted or guaranteed by the government.

26.  The program also includes a number of structural benchmarks, as indicated in the attached table.

27.  A program review is scheduled for October 2001. This review will assess the performance under the program at end-September and reach understandings on the budget for 2002.

Table 1. Côte d'Ivoire: Prior Actions, and Quantitative and Structural Benchmarks for July–December 2001
(In billions of CFA francs, unless otherwise indicated)

   2001   2001
  June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.
  Est. Prog.  Prog.  Prog. Prog.  Prog.  Prog. 

Prior actions
  1. Adoption of a fiscal program for 2001 that is consistent with
      this memorandum
  2. Increase in electricity tariff of 10 percent     x          
  3. Reduction of the export tax on cocoa from CFAF 200 per
      kilogram to CFAF 160 per kilogram
Quantitative benchmarks
  1. Central government tax revenue (cumulative since start
      of year)
561   659 735 805 881 989 1,091
  2. Basic primary balance (cumulative since start of year)1 216   234 218 207 218 249 278
  3. Net bank credit to the government2 –106   –115 –96 –62 –54 –56 –62
  4. Outstanding verified domestic arrears of the government3 264   260 265 270 285 267 290
  5. Outstanding external arrears of the government4 344   334 330 355 403 401 384
        Of which: multilateral5 126   122 117 117 117 112 92
  6. New nonconcessional external debt contracted or guaranteed
      by the government (cumulative since start of year)
      (millions of U.S. dollars)
0   0 0 10 10 10 10
  At maturities of less than 12 years 0   0 0 0 0 0 0
        Of which: less than 1 year6 7                 
  At maturities of 12 years or more with a grant element of
      10 percent to 35 percent
0   0 0 10 10 10 10
  7. Outstanding commitments for which no payment orders have
      been issued (DENOs8
99   112 111 118 118 119 75
Structural benchmarks
  1. Liquidation of the new CAISTAB
  2. Decision on strategic guidelines for the CAA based on
      audit recommendations
  3. Maintenance of framework for coffee/cocoa sector, with no
      direct or indirect financial commitment by the government
      as marketing
  4. Implementation of a program for recovering CAISTAB's
      claims on exporters in default

1Based on a definition of total expenditure minus interest and investments financed by project lending and grants.
2Cumulative changes since start of the year, excluding deposits corresponding to disbursements from the European Union.
3Includes all amounts payable by the treasury, including the floating debt, audited liabilities, and SIR coverage.
4Nonaccumulation of new external payments arrears during the program period (July–December).
5The cumulative arrears to multilateral institutions for January–June 2001 should not increase from one month to the next and should be paid off by December 2001.
6The term debt has the meaning set forth in point No. 9 of the Guidelines on Performance Criteria with respect to foreign debt (Decision No. 12274-(00/85, August 24, 2000).
7Excluding import credits.
8Commitments for which no payment orders have been issued against domestic financing.

Côte D'Ivoire
Technical Memorandum of Understanding

August 13, 2001

This memorandum describes the understandings between the Ivoirien authorities and the IMF staff as regards the definition of the quantitative and structural benchmarks under the SMP, as well as the financial and monetary data needed for the monitoring of this program.

I.  Quantitative Benchmarks (Table 1 of the Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies)

A.  Basic Primary Balance

The basic primary balance is defined as the difference between total revenue and primary expenditure, excluding foreign-financed investment. Information on the primary balance will be forwarded to the staff not later than 20 days following the end of the month under review.

B.  Net Bank Credit to the Government

Net bank credit from the banking system to the government is defined as the overall position of the central government vis-à-vis the banking system. Table 1 of the MEFP indicates the ceilings on net credit to the government for the period from end-July to end-December 2001. A detailed statement of net credit to the government for each month will be forwarded to the staff not later than six weeks following the end of the month under review.

C.  Nonaccumulation of New Domestic Arrears

Under the program, the government will not accumulate new domestic arrears. Domestic arrears are defined as amounts receivable from the treasury (including subsidies to the municipalities and the EPNs), audited liabilities, and coverage of SIR. The arrears situation will be monitored by means of the monthly table on implementation of the cash-flow plan.

D.  Outstanding Balance of the Government's External Arrears

This balance consists of the nonreschedulable debt of the public sector (including the central government, state enterprises, and agencies acting on behalf of the government) to multilateral institutions and bilateral creditors. An itemized listing of payments of arrears will be communicated to the staff every month not later than 20 days following the end of the month under review. Table 1 indicates a schedule for eliminating cumulative arrears to multilateral creditors during the last six months of 2001. An itemized listing of payments of said arrears will be communicated monthly to the staff not later than 20 days following the end of the month under review.

E.  Nonconcessional External Debt Contracted or Guaranteed by the Central Government (other than borrowing from the IMF)

Nonconcessional debt (including purchases on credit) are defined as loans with a grant element of less than 35 percent, as calculated by using the reference interest rates of the relevant currencies. Debt rescheduling and debt restructuring are excluded from the ceilings on nonconcessional borrowing. An itemized list of all new external loans, including government guarantees, which indicates the terms and conditions of the loans and claims, will be provided to the staff monthly not later than 20 days following the end of the month under review.

II.  Other Data Required For Program Monitoring

Other requirements are as follows:

  • a monthly table of central government financial operations (TOFE);

  • detailed data on the revenue collected by the financial authorities and the revenue covered by the ACCT/BCEAO account;

  • detailed monthly data on the nontax revenue of the treasury;

  • comprehensive monthly data on other government resources (including transfers from enterprises, privatization proceeds, oil revenues, telecommunications royalties, etc.);

  • monthly data on DUS collections;

  • detailed tables on expenditure commitments and payment orders issued;

  • monthly data on SIGFIP implementation;

  • monthly data on investment budget execution, itemizing the amounts and financing sources involved;

  • Monthly data on the outstanding balance of commitments for which no payment orders have been issued (DENOs).

  • a monthly table monitoring the debt due and paid by creditor;

  • a monthly table on outstanding external arrears and debt stock;

  • a table on monthly cash-flow plan execution;

  • a monthly table on domestic arrears and amounts payable by the treasury;

  • monthly data on the net position of the government;

  • an integrated monetary survey of the banks, the BCEAO, and the banking system;

  • monthly information on clearance of the hydrocarbons deficit; and

  • information on the government's implementation of all the structural reform measures (including the reduction of the charges negotiated with energy sector transactors): this information must staff the Fund not later than ten days following the implementation of each measure concerned.

1This figure includes debt-service payments to the World Bank (CFAF 96.5 billion) and the African Development Bank (CFAF 78.5 billion).
2The activities in question are forecasting harvests, maintaining internal statistics, monitoring stocks and purchase declarations, auditing and monitoring concessions, monitoring processing plant agreements and ex ante registration of sales, monitoring health quality control certification, overseeing shipments, and monitoring statistics on export receipts.
3This study was financed by the World Bank. However, owing to the suspension of disbursement, the consultant is awaiting payment of his fees before completing the next phase of the study.