Search IMF Staff Papers


Advanced Search
Journal Description

Editorial Committee

How to Subscribe

Forthcoming Articles

Staff Papers Archive

Copyright Information

Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view pdf files

Free Email Notification

Receive emails when we post new items of interest to you.

Subscribe or Modify your profile




IMF Staff Papers Logo Last updated: April 2002
Volume 49, Number 1
 
Further Cross-Country Evidence on the Accuracy of the Private Sector's Output Forecasts
Grace Juhn and Prakash Loungani

Full Text of this Article (PDF 78K)

Abstract: This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of real GDP growth for a large number of industrialized and developing countries for the time period October 1989 to December 1999. The questions addressed are the following: How accurate are private sector forecasts? How does their accuracy compare with that of the IMF's World Economic Outlook? How well do forecasters predict rare events such as recessions or crises? Is discord among forecasters associated with lower forecast accuracy? [JEL C5, E3, D8]

© 2002 International Monetary Fund