IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan
IMF News, June 18, 2025
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- Published: June 18, 2025
Key findings on recent performance
- Real GDP growth: 6.5 percent in 2024; 6.8 percent year-on-year in Q1 2025.
- Consumer price inflation: trended downward through end-April 2024, rose to 10.6 percent year-on-year in May 2024 following energy price reform; by end-April 2025 marginally eased to 10.1 percent.
- Current account deficit: narrowed by 2.6 percentage points of GDP to about 5.0 percent in 2024.
- International reserves: described as ample; projected at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026.
- Consolidated fiscal deficit: narrowed by 1.7 percentage points of GDP to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2024, though borrowing and spending from the broader public sector were higher than anticipated.
- Drivers of improved external and fiscal positions: strong remittances, rapidly growing non-gold exports, favorable commodity prices, unwinding of a one-off spike in imports in 2023, and growth-friendly expenditure measures.
Outlook and projections (baseline)
- Real GDP growth: projected at close to 6 percent in 2025 and 2026 under the baseline.
- Inflation: expected to decline to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s (CBU) 5 percent target by end-2027, supported by continued tight monetary and macroprudential policies and fiscal discipline.
- Current account deficit: foreseen to stay at or slightly below 5 percent over 2025-26.
- International reserves: expected at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026.
Risks and upside scenarios
- Downside risks:
- Prolonged and deeper trade policy shocks.
- More volatile commodity prices.
- Tighter external financing.
- Contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and banks, and public-private partnerships.
- Upside opportunities:
- Faster implementation of structural reforms.
- Stronger inflows of income and capital.
- Favorable commodity prices.
Executive Board assessment and policy priorities
- Overall assessment:
- Directors agreed with the staff appraisal and welcomed the positive outlook amid transition progress.
- Noted persistent vulnerabilities from a still large state footprint and rising external uncertainty.
- Fiscal policy recommendations:
- Reverse the decline in the tax-to-GDP ratio and improve expenditure efficiency to create fiscal space for priority social and development needs.
- Adhere to external borrowing limits and avoid government spending procyclicality in response to high gold prices.
- Improve monitoring and management of fiscal risks from SOEs and public-private partnerships.
- Further strengthen PFM and fiscal transparency.
- Monetary and exchange rate recommendations:
- Maintain data-driven monetary policy and tighten further if core inflation or inflation expectations do not decline.
- Continue strengthening communication and monetary policy transmission.
- Adopt greater exchange rate flexibility.
- Implement outstanding safeguards recommendations to strengthen central bank governance and independence.
- Financial sector recommendations:
- Enhance bank supervision and regulation to safeguard financial stability and reduce the state’s role in the financial sector.
- Bolster the commercial orientation and corporate governance of state banks; phase out directed and preferential lending.
- Expedite and expand privatization efforts.
- Strengthen asset classification, NPL reporting and resolution, and the regulatory, supervisory, crisis management, and AML/CFT frameworks following recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program.
- Consider additional macroprudential measures to mitigate risks from rapid growth in microcredit.
- Structural reforms:
- Deepen and accelerate reforms, complete price and trade liberalization, phase out support to SOEs, and accelerate privatizations in line with international best practices.
- Advance governance reforms, including improvements in transparency and accountability and approval of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy.
- Close data gaps and improve data quality.
Selected economic indicators (2022–2026)
- National income / Real GDP growth (percent change)
- 2022: 6.0
- 2023: 6.3
- 2024: 6.5
- 2025 Est.: 5.9
- 2026 Proj.: 5.8
- Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum)
- 2022: 996
- 2023: 1,204
- 2024: 1,455
- 2025 Est.: 1,733
- 2026 Proj.: 2,005
- GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars)
- 2022: 2,555
- 2023: 2,849
- 2024: 3,113
- 2025 Est.: 3,487
- 2026 Proj.: 3,805
- Population (in millions)
- 2022: 35.3
- 2023: 36.0
- 2024: 36.9
- 2025 Est.: 37.7
- 2026 Proj.: 38.5
- Prices (Percent change)
- Consumer price inflation (end of period)
- 2022: 12.3
- 2023: 8.7
- 2024: 9.8
- 2025 Est.: 8.4
- GDP deflator
- 2022: 14.5
- 2023: 13.8
- 2024: 13.3
- 2025 Est.: 12.5
- 2026 Proj.: 9.4
- External sector (Percent of GDP)
- Current account balance
- 2022: -3.2
- 2023: -7.6
- 2024: -5.0
- 2025 Est.: -4.8
- External debt
- 2022: 49.2
- 2023: 54.5
- 2024: 56.2
- 2025 Est.: 55.4
- 2026 Proj.: 55.2
- Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period)
- 2022: 11,225
- 2023: 12,339
- 2024: 12,920
- 2025: …
- Real effective exchange rate (ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation)
- 2022: 61.8
- 2023: 58.8
- Government finance (percent of GDP)
- Consolidated budget revenues
- 2022: 28.8
- 2023: 26.7
- 2024: 26.5
- 2025 Est.: 26.3
- 2026 Proj.: 26.4
- Consolidated budget expenditures
- 2022: 32.3
- 2023: 31.6
- 2024: 29.7
- 2025 Est.: 29.3
- 2026 Proj.: 29.4
- Consolidated budget balance
- 2022: -3.5
- 2023: -4.9
- 2024: -3.0
- Adjusted revenues 3/
- 2022: 27.7
- 2023: 25.9
- 2024: 25.5
- 2025 Est.: 25.3
- Adjusted expenditures 3/
- 2022: 31.3
- 2023: 29.9
- 2024: 27.8
- 2025 Est.: 27.3
- Adjusted fiscal balance
- 2022: -3.7
- 2023: -4.0
- 2024: -2.3
- 2025 Est.: -2.0
- Policy-based lending
- 2022: -0.1
- 2023: 0.9
- 2024: 1.0
- 2025 Est.: 0.7
- Public debt
- 2022: 30.5
- 2023: 32.2
- 2024: 32.6
- 2025 Est.: 33.3
- 2026 Proj.: 33.2
- Money and credit (percent change or level as indicated)
- Reserve money
- 2022: 31.4
- 2023: 4.9
- 2024: 9.5
- 2025 Est.: 9.2
- 2026 Proj.: 8.8
- Broad money
- 2022: 30.2
- 2023: 12.2
- 2024: 30.6
- 2025 Est.: 19.4
- 2026 Proj.: 16.3
- Credit to the economy
- 2022: 21.4
- 2023: 23.2
- 2024: 4.0
- 2025 Est.: 19.3
- 2026 Proj.: 16.0
IMF Communications Department, Press Release No. 25/206, June 18, 2025.