June 18, 2025
PRESS OFFICER: Wafa Amr
Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org
Washington, DC: On June 16, 2025, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for the Republic of Uzbekistan.[1] The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.[2]
Uzbekistan’s economic performance has remained strong. Real GDP growth stood at 6.5 percent in 2024, underpinned by robust domestic demand, and remained buoyant at 6.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Inflation had trended downward through end-April 2024 but rose to 10.6 percent year-on-year in May 2024 that saw the implementation of needed energy price reform. By end-April 2025, it has only marginally eased to 10.1 percent. The current account deficit narrowed by 2.6 percentage points of GDP to about 5.0 percent in 2024, driven by strong remittances, rapidly growing non-gold exports, favorable commodity prices, and the unwinding of a one-off spike in imports in 2023. International reserves have remained ample. The consolidated fiscal deficit narrowed by 1.7 percentage points of GDP to 3.2 percent of GDP in 2024, largely on the back of growth-friendly expenditure measures, although borrowing and spending from the broader public sector were higher than anticipated.
The outlook remains broadly positive. Despite heightened global trade policy uncertainty, real GDP growth is projected to remain robust under the baseline, at close to 6 percent this year and next, supported by sustained strength in private consumption, investment, and advancement of structural reforms. The latter, continued tight monetary and macroprudential policies, and solidified fiscal discipline are expected to reduce inflation to the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s (CBU) 5 percent target by end-2027. The external current account deficit is foreseen to stay at or slightly below 5 percent over 2025-26 while international reserves are expected to remain adequate, at 9.2 months of imports by end-2026.
Downside risks to the outlook include prolonged and deeper trade policy shocks, more volatile commodity prices, tighter external financing, and contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and banks, and public-private partnerships. On the upside, opportunities stem from faster implementation of structural reforms, stronger inflows of income and capital, and favorable commodity prices.
Executive Board Assessment[3]
Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed Uzbekistan’s positive economic outlook amid continued progress in the transition to a market-oriented economy. Directors noted, however, that significant vulnerabilities persist, including from the still large state footprint in the economy and rising external uncertainty. Against this background, they emphasized the importance of sustaining the momentum in structural and institutional reforms, supported by Fund technical assistance, to entrench macroeconomic stability and maintain robust and resilient growth.
Directors commended the authorities for the significant fiscal consolidation achieved. They broadly called for reversing the decline in the tax-to-GDP ratio and improving expenditure efficiency to create fiscal space for priority social and development needs. Directors stressed the importance of adhering to external borrowing limits and avoiding government spending procyclicality in response to high gold prices to support inflation reduction. They also advised improving monitoring and management of fiscal risks from SOEs and public-private partnerships and further strengthening PFM and fiscal transparency.
Directors welcomed the commitment of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) to reduce inflation. They agreed that monetary policy should remain data driven and be tightened further if core inflation or inflation expectations do not decline. Directors encouraged the CBU to continue strengthening communication and monetary policy transmission. They also recommended adopting greater exchange rate flexibility and implementing outstanding safeguards recommendations to strengthen central bank governance and independence.
Directors called for enhancing bank supervision and regulation to safeguard financial stability, while reducing the state’s role in the financial sector. In this regard, they recommended bolstering the commercial orientation of state banks and their corporate governance, phasing out directed and preferential lending, and expediting and expanding privatization efforts. Directors also advised the authorities to strengthen asset classification, NPL reporting and resolution, and the regulatory, supervisory, crisis management, and AML/CFT frameworks following the recommendations of the country’s first Financial Sector Assessment Program. Additional macroprudential measures could help mitigate risks from rapid growth in microcredit.
Directors encouraged deepening and accelerating structural reforms. While welcoming the progress with WTO accession and energy sector reform, they emphasized that it will be essential to complete price and trade liberalization, phase out support to SOEs, and accelerate privatizations while carrying them out in line with international best practices. Directors called on the authorities to make further progress in governance reforms, including improvements in transparency and accountability and the approval of the National Anti-Corruption Strategy. Closing data gaps and improving data quality remain priorities.
It is expected that the next Article IV consultation with Uzbekistan will be held on the standard 12-month cycle.
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Uzbekistan: Selected Economic Indicators 2022-2026
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|
|
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
|
|
|
|
Est. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
|
National income 1/ |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Real GDP growth (percent change) |
6.0 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
5.9 |
5.8 |
|
Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum) |
996 |
1,204 |
1,455 |
1,733 |
2,005 |
|
GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars) |
2,555 |
2,849 |
3,113 |
3,487 |
3,805 |
|
Population (in millions) |
35.3 |
36.0 |
36.9 |
37.7 |
38.5 |
|
Prices |
(Percent change) |
||||
|
Consumer price inflation (end of period) 2/ |
12.3 |
8.7 |
9.8 |
8.4 |
6.5 |
|
GDP deflator |
14.5 |
13.8 |
13.3 |
12.5 |
9.4 |
|
External sector |
(Percent of GDP) |
||||
|
Current account balance |
-3.2 |
-7.6 |
-5.0 |
-5.0 |
-4.8 |
|
External debt |
49.2 |
54.5 |
56.2 |
55.4 |
55.2 |
|
|
(Level) |
|
|||
|
Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period) |
11,225 |
12,339 |
12,920 |
… |
… |
|
Real effective exchange rate |
|
||||
|
(ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation) |
61.8 |
58.8 |
55.4 |
… |
… |
|
Government finance |
(Percent of GDP) |
||||
|
Consolidated budget revenues |
28.8 |
26.7 |
26.5 |
26.3 |
26.4 |
|
Consolidated budget expenditures |
32.3 |
31.6 |
29.7 |
29.3 |
29.4 |
|
Consolidated budget balance |
-3.5 |
-4.9 |
-3.2 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
|
Adjusted revenues 3/ |
27.7 |
25.9 |
25.5 |
25.3 |
25.5 |
|
Adjusted expenditures 3/ |
31.3 |
29.9 |
27.8 |
27.3 |
27.8 |
|
Adjusted fiscal balance |
-3.7 |
-4.0 |
-2.3 |
-2.0 |
-2.3 |
|
Policy-based lending |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
|
Overall fiscal balance 3/ |
-3.5 |
-4.9 |
-3.2 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
|
Public debt |
30.5 |
32.2 |
32.6 |
33.3 |
33.2 |
|
Money and credit |
(Percent Change) |
||||
|
Reserve money |
31.4 |
4.9 |
9.5 |
9.2 |
8.8 |
|
Broad money |
30.2 |
12.2 |
30.6 |
19.4 |
16.3 |
|
Credit to the economy |
21.4 |
23.2 |
4.0 |
19.3 |
16.0 |
|
Sources: Country authorities; and IMF staff estimates. |
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1/ Incorporates latest revision to national accounts data, which raised the average nominal GDP for 2017-2023 by about 11 percent. 2/ The CPI projection incorporates the effect of the announced increases in energy prices in 2024 and 2025. 3/ IMF staff adjusts budget revenues and expenditures for financing operations, such as equity injections, policy lending, and privatization of state enterprises. The overall fiscal balance until 2021 is more negative than the consolidated budget balance as the latter excluded privatization receipts. Since 2022, there is no difference as the authorities started including all privatization receipts as financing. |
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[1] Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.
[2] Under the IMF's Articles of Agreement, publication of documents that pertain to member countries is voluntary and requires the member consent. The staff report will be shortly published on the www.imf.org/Uzbekistan page.
[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chair of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
