IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges
Global Financial Stability Report, October 7, 2015
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 7, 2015
- Series: Global Financial Stability Report
Report overview and key messages
- Title and date: Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges — October 2015.
- Overall assessment: Financial stability has improved in advanced economies since April, but risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets.
- Triad of global policy challenges:
- Emerging market vulnerabilities.
- Legacy issues from the crisis in advanced economies.
- Weak systemic market liquidity.
- Recent market developments cited as underscoring vulnerabilities:
- Slumping commodity prices.
- China’s bursting equity bubble.
- Pressure on exchange rates.
- Monetary policy normalization risk: The prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve gradually raising interest rates points to an unprecedented adjustment in the global financial system as financial conditions and risk premiums “normalize” from historically low levels alongside rising policy rates and a modest cyclical recovery.
Chapter 1 — Three Scenarios for Financial Stability (summary points)
- Chapter focus: Three scenarios for financial stability including a Global Asset Market Disruption Scenario and a Successful Normalization Scenario.
- Structural points and risks:
- Locus of risks shifting toward emerging markets.
- Compression of global risk premiums and market abnormalities noted.
- Banking in Europe: impact of nonperforming loans highlighted.
- Figures and analytical emphasis (selected):
- 1.1 Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions.
- 1.6 Triad of Global Policy Challenges.
- 1.19 Systemic Implications of a Liquidity Shock.
- 1.20 Effect of a Global Asset Market Disruption.
- Boxes and special topics:
- 1.1 China’s Equity Market.
- 1.2 Compression of Global Risk Premiums and Market Abnormalities.
- 1.3 Banking in Europe: The Impact of Nonperforming Loans.
Chapter 2 — Market Liquidity—Resilient or Fleeting? (findings and policy implications)
- Chapter summary:
- Only some markets show obvious signs of worsening market liquidity; dynamics diverge across bond classes.
- Current levels of market liquidity are being sustained by benign cyclical conditions and accommodative monetary policy.
- Some structural developments may be eroding liquidity resilience.
- Policymakers should have a policy strategy in hand to cope with episodes of dry ups of market liquidity.
- A smooth normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies and continuation of market infrastructure reforms are important to avoid disruptions.
- Determinants and mechanisms examined:
- How market liquidity can be low despite abundant central bank liquidity.
- Electronic trading and market liquidity.
- Structural drivers of the resilience of market liquidity.
- Market liquidity and bank stress testing.
- Specific analytical elements and sections:
- 2.1 Liquidity Measures.
- 2.2 Determinants of Low-Liquidity Regime Probability in the U.S. Corporate Bond Market.
- 2.3 Determinants of Low-Liquidity Regime in the Foreign Exchange and European Sovereign Bond Markets.
- 2.4 Bond Returns and Liquidity Risk.
- 2.5 Summary of Findings and Policy Implications.
- Drivers and vulnerabilities listed in chapter subsections:
- Trends in bond markets—market liquidity level and bifurcation.
- Trends in market making and dealers’ balance sheet space.
- Central bank collateral policies and regulation impacts (examples).
- Fed purchases and Mortgage-Backed Securities liquidity.
- Probability of liquidity regimes and liquidity spillovers and market stress.
Chapter 3 — Corporate Leverage in Emerging Markets—A Concern? (findings and implications)
- Growth in corporate debt:
- Chapter statements: corporate debt in emerging markets "quadrupled between 2003 and 2014" (earlier text) and also described as having "quadrupled between 2004 and 2014" (chapter summary).
- Role of global factors:
- Global drivers have played an increasing role in leverage growth, bond issuance, and corporate spreads.
- The greater role of global factors during a period when they have been exceptionally favorable suggests emerging markets must prepare for the implications of global financial tightening.
- Leverage and currency exposure:
- Higher leverage has been associated with, on average, rising foreign currency exposures.
- Despite weaker balance sheets, firms have managed to issue bonds at better terms as a result of favorable financial conditions.
- Topics and analytical elements:
- 3.1 Shadow Rates.
- 3.2 Corporate Foreign Exchange Rate Exposures.
- 3.3 Corporate Leverage in China.
- 3.4 Firm Capital Structure, the Business Cycle, and Monetary Policy.
- 3.5 The Shift from Bank to Bond Financing of Emerging Market Corporate Debt.
- 3.6 Taper Tantrum: Did Firm-Level Factors Matter?
- Empirical tables and figures cited (selected):
- 3.1 Worsening Emerging Market Firm-Level and Macroeconomic Fundamentals.
- 3.2 Emerging Market Economies: Evolving Capital Structure.
- 3.12 Bond Issuance: Currency Composition.
- 3.17 Emerging Market Economies: Secondary Market Corporate Spreads.
- 3.18 Emerging Market Economies: Effects of Domestic and Global Factors on Corporate Spreads.
Policy recommendations and priorities highlighted across the report
- For market liquidity:
- Prepare policy strategies to cope with episodes of dry ups of market liquidity.
- Ensure smooth normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies.
- Continue market infrastructure reforms to ensure more efficient and transparent capital markets.
- For emerging markets and corporate leverage:
- Prepare for implications of global financial tightening given increased corporate leverage and foreign currency exposures.
- Monitor shifts from bank to bond financing and related vulnerabilities.
- For advanced economy legacies:
- Address legacy issues from the crisis (including nonperforming loans in Europe and banking sector vulnerabilities) to reduce systemic amplification of shocks.
IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges — October 2015.
Content in this bundle
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- 全球金融稳定:脆弱性、遗留问题和政策挑战; iMFdirect博客; 2015年10月7日
- 2015年10月 全球金融稳定报告第二、三章概要
- 国际货币基金组织2015年10月《全球金融稳定报告》
- Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde; le 29 octobre 2015; Résumés des chapitres 2 et 3
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- 国際金融安定性報告書
- Annex Figure 1.2.1
- Annex Figure 1.2.2
- Annex Figure 1.2.3
- Annex Figure 1.2.4
- Figure 1.1.1.1
- Figure 1.1.1.2
- Figure 1.2.1.1
- Figure 1.2.1.2
- Figure 1.3.1
- Figure 1.3.2
- Figure 1.10
- Figure 1.11
- Figure 1.12
- Figure 1.13
- Figure 1.14
- Figure 1.15
- Figure 1.16
- Figure 1.17
- Figure 1.18
- Figure 1.19
- Figure 1.01
- Figure 1.20
- Figure 1.21
- Figure 1.22
- Figure 1.23
- Figure 1.24
- Figure 1.02
- Figure 1.03
- Figure 1.04
- Figure 1.05
- Figure 1.06
- Figure 1.07
- Figure 1.08
- Figure 1.09
- Figure 2.2.1
- Figure 2.2.2
- Figure 2.3.1. Liquidity during the Taper Tantrum
- Figure 2.3.2. Ownership and Market Liquidity
- Figure 2.4.1
- Figure 2.10. Financial Sector Bond Holdings
- Figure 2.11. Probability of Liquidity Regimes
- Figure 2.12. Liquidity Spillovers and Market Stress
- Figure 2.1. Drivers of Liquidity and Liquidity Resilience
- Figure 2.2. Trends in Bond Markets—Market Liquidity Level
- Figure 2.3. Bond Market Liquidity—Bifurcation and Price Impact of Transactions
- Figure 2.4. Trends in Market Making
- Figure 2.5. Dealers' Balance Sheet Space
- Figure 2.6. Central Bank Collateral Policies
- Figure 2.7. Regulation and Market Liquidity: Two Examples
- Figure 2.8. Fed Purchases and Mortgage-Backed Securities Liquidity
- Figure 2.9. Main Drivers of Market Liquidity
- Figure 3.1.1
- Boxfigure331v2pdf
- Figure 3.5.1. Changes in the Stock of Bonds by Initial Quartile
- Figure 3.6.1. Effects of the Shock on Credit Default Swap Spreads
- Figure 3.10. Leverage, Cash Holdings, and Corporate Investment
- Figure 3.11. Bond Issuance by Regions and Sectors
- Figure 3.12. Bond Issuance: Currency Composition
- Figure 3.13. Deteriorating Firm-Specific Fundamentals for Bond-Issuing Firms
- Figure 3.14. Bond Issuance: Yields and Maturity
- figure315pdf
- Figure 3.16. Factors Influencing Bond Maturity
- figure317pdf
- figure318pdf
- Figure 3.1. Emerging Market Economies: Evolving Capital Structure
- Figure 3.2. Emerging Market Economies: Selected Leverage Ratios
- Figure 3.3. Emerging Market Economies: Changing Composition of Corporate Debt
- Figure 3.4. Domestic Banks: Ratio of Total Corporate Loans to Total Loans in 2014
- figure35v2pdf
- Figure 3.6. Foreign Exchange Exposures in Emerging Market Economies (Listed Firms)
- Figure 3.7. Change in Foreign Exchange Exposures and Corporate Leverage, by Sector
- Figure 3.8. Corporate Liabilities and Solvency
- Figure 3.9. Key Determinants of Emerging Market Economies’ Corporate Leverage
- CHAPTER 1 THREE SCENARIOS FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY
- CHAPTER 2 MARKET LIQUIDITY—RESILIENT OR FLEETING? (c2v3pdf)
- CHAPTER 3 CORPORATE LEVERAGE IN EMERGING MARKETS—A CONCERN?
- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- PREFACE
- MARKET LIQUIDITY—RESILIENT OR FLEETING?
- CORPORATE LEVERAGE IN EMERGING MARKETS—A CONCERN?
- Global Financial Stability Report—Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges: Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets
- Глобальная финансовая стабильность: факторы уязвимости, последствия и проблемы политики
- sumr
- ДОКЛАД ПО ВОПРОСАМ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ ФИНАНСОВОЙ СТАБИЛЬНОСТИ, ОКТЯБРЬ 2015 ГОДА — АНАЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ РЕЗЮМЕ
- INFORME SOBRE LA ESTABILIDAD FINANCIERA MUNDIAL DE OCTUBRE DE 2015 — RESÚMENES DE CAPÍTULOS 2 Y 3
- INFORME SOBRE LA ESTABILIDAD FINANCIERA MUNDIAL DE OCTUBRE DE 2015 — RESUMEN GENERAL
- Figure 1.1.1. Chinese Equity Market
- Figure 1.2.1. Policies Have Led to Compressed Term Premiums and Market Abnormalities
- boxfigure131
- Figure 1.3.2. Euro Area Foreclosure Time and Lending Capacity from Foreclosure Time to Reduction
- Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions
- Figure 1.10. Banking System Average Tier 1 Ratio
- Figure 1.11. Bank Capital and Asset Changes
- Figure 1.12. Chinese Banks: Asset Quality Challenges
- Figure 1.13. Evolultion of Bank Funding
- Figure 1.14. Chinese Exchange Rate Movements and Effect on Emerging Market Currencies
- Figure 1.15. Greece: Developments
- Figure 1.16. Bank Profitability and Balance Sheet Strength
- Figure 1.17. Potential Amplifiers of Market Stress
- Figure 1.18. Large U.S. and European Regulated Bond Investment Funds with Derivatives-Embedded Leverage
- Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map: Components of Risks and Conditions
- Figure 1.20. Effect of a Global Asset Market Disruption
- Figure 1.21. Emerging Market Local Currency Bond Yields
- Figure 1.22. Corporate Debt Burden in Market Disruption Scenario
- Figure 1.23. Lower Ratings Would Lock in Higher Borrowing Costs
- Figure 1.24. Selected Quasi-Sovereign Company Ownership and Debt
- Figure 1.3. Inflation, Monetary Policy, and Policy Rate Normalization
- figure14 — Economic Risk Taking Remains Weak in Advanced Economies
- Figure 1.5. Locus of Risks Shifting toward Emerging Markets
- figure17
- figure18 — Credit Growth, Corporate Leverage, and Nonperforming Bank Loans (dataset overview)
- Figure 1.9. Emerging Market Companies: Exposure to Dollar Strength and Commodity Prices
- boxfigure221
- Figure211 (dataset overview)
- Figure212
- Figure22 (dataset overview)
- figure23
- figure24
- boxfigure31 — dataset overview
- Figure 3.3.1 China: Leverage Ratios
- Figure 3.1. Emerging Market Economies: Evolving Capital Structure
- Figure 3.10. Leverage, Cash Holdings, and Corporate Investment
- Figure 3.11. Bond Issuance by Regions and Sectors
- Figure 3.12. Bond Issuance: Currency Composition
- Figure 3.13. Deteriorating Firm-Specific Fundamentals for Bond-Issuing Firms
- Figure 3.14. Bond Issuance: Yields and Maturity
- Figure 3.17. Emerging Market economies: Secondary Market Corporate Spreads
- Figure 3.2 Emerging Market Economies: Selected Leverage Ratios
- Figure 3.3. Emerging Market Economies: Changing Composition of Corporate Debt
- Figure 3.4. Domestic Banks: Ratio of Total Corporate Loans to Total Loans in 2014
- Figure 3.5. Emerging Market Economies Corporate Debt, by Selected Regions and Sectors
- Figure 3.8. Corporate Liabilities and Solvency
References
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- Policymakers Face Triad of Challenges to Ensure Financial Stability
- Blog: Global Financial Stability: Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges
- Market Liquidity Not in Decline, But Prone to Evaporate
- Rise in Emerging Market Corporate Debt Driven by Global Factors
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