Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, Update
Middle East and Central Asia, May 6, 2014
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Bibliographic details
- Published: May 6, 2014
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia
Overview
- Publication: Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East & Central Asia
- Date: May 2014
- Geographic focus: Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan (MENAP); Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)
- General assessment:
- Growth has been tepid across the MENAP region.
- Growth is expected to strengthen in 2014 in line with an improved global outlook.
- Risks to the CCA are tilted to the downside due to weakening growth momentum in emerging market trading partners.
Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan (MENAP) — Key findings
- 2013 dynamics:
- Declines in oil production held back growth in the oil-exporting countries.
- Weak private investment, amid political transitions and conflict, continued to take a toll on economic activity in the oil-importing countries.
- 2014 outlook:
- Growth is expected to strengthen this year in line with an improved global outlook.
- Structural and policy challenges:
- Weak confidence and, in some cases, large public deficits will continue to weigh on the region's economic prospects.
- Deeper economic transformations are necessary to ensure robust and inclusive growth and creation of enough jobs for the rapidly-growing labor force.
Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) — Key findings
- Growth projection:
- Economic growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) is expected to decline from 6½ percent in 2013 to 6 percent in 2014.
- Drivers and risks:
- The projected slowdown is mainly because of weakening growth momentum in emerging market trading partners (particularly, China, Russia, and Turkey) and a temporary decline in oil output growth in Kazakhstan.
- Risks remain tilted to the downside. In particular, a slowdown in emerging market trading partners may weaken exports, foreign direct investment, and remittances.
Policy priorities and recommendations
- Rebuild buffers and increase exchange rate flexibility to help adjust to unanticipated shocks.
- Strengthen macroeconomic frameworks to provide a more credible anchor to economies.
- Address rapid credit growth in some countries by strengthening prudential policies to ensure the continued soundness of financial institutions.
- Implement structural reforms to improve the business environment and governance.
- Pursue closer regional cooperation to enable CCA countries to achieve their goal of becoming dynamic emerging market economies.
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, Update — May 2014
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