The Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Asia
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- Authors: AMIT PRAKASH
- Published: September 1, 2018
Regional vulnerability and observed impacts
- Southeast Asia is described as "one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change" with more than 640 million people living in the region.
- Example: Hoi An, Vietnam — water level rose to 1.6 meters (5.25 feet) during a typhoon; businesses shut down for "three to four days."
- Average temperatures in Southeast Asia have risen every decade since 1960.
- Vietnam, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand are among 10 countries in the world most affected by climate change in the past 20 years (Global Climate Risk Index).
- The World Bank counts Vietnam among five countries most likely to be affected by global warming in the future.
- Climate-driven shifts reported: tropical diseases (malaria, dengue) moving northward to countries like Lao P.D.R.
Economic impact and sectoral risks
- Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimate: unchecked climate change could shave 11 percent off the region’s GDP by the end of the century; contrasted with a 2009 estimate of a 6.7 percent reduction.
- ADB and Potsdam Institute study: region could shift to a "new climate regime" by the end of the century (coolest summer months warmer than the hottest 1951–1980 summer months).
- Rice yields in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam could drop by as much as 50 percent by 2100 from 1990 levels in the absence of technical breakthroughs.
- Key sectors at risk: agriculture, tourism, and fishing; also impacts on human health and labor productivity.
Emissions trends and energy mix
- While per capita emissions have been low relative to advanced economies, emissions are rising: "Between 1990 and 2010, emissions of carbon dioxide increased faster in Southeast Asia than anywhere else."
- International Energy Agency (IEA) projection: energy demand will grow as much as 66 percent by 2040.
- Coal will account for almost 40 percent of the increase as it overtakes natural gas in the energy mix.
- Indonesia is the world’s fifth-largest coal producer and its second-largest net exporter; Malaysia and Thailand are the eighth- and ninth-largest net importers (IEA data).
- Vietnam’s coal-power capacity under active development is the third largest in the world after China’s and India’s; Indonesia and the Philippines rank fifth and tenth, respectively (March 2018 report).
Deforestation, peatlands, and emissions
- Deforestation is identified as "another major source of greenhouse gases."
- In Indonesia, deforestation accounts for almost half of the country’s emissions—more than fossil fuels.
- Draining and burning peatlands releases substantial carbon dioxide; smoke from such fires has repeatedly affected neighboring countries.
- Emissions from the most recent peatland fires in 2015 "exceeded those of the entire European Union," according to Reuters.
- World Resources Institute: enforcing Indonesia’s 2011 moratorium could eliminate 188 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year, "or about 60 percent of France’s total output in 2016."
Urbanization, infrastructure, and localized risks
- Rapid economic growth and urbanization magnify climate impacts: migration to cities increases heat and exposure; construction in floodplains blocks waterways.
- Example: Da Nang and Hoi An — reservoir management upstream changes river flows; reservoirs overwhelmed by extreme rainfall, leading to downstream floods.
- An internationally funded $70 million project aims to provide more timely flood warnings for Hoi An residents.
- Da Nang population forecast: surge to 1.65 million by 2020 from 1 million "today" (World Bank estimates).
- Tourism-related development has contributed to coastal erosion: Hoi An’s Cua Dai Beach shoreline receded by 150 meters in 2004–2012; floodwalls and sandbags are now common.
Coastal exposure, water stress, and food security
- Some 70 percent of Vietnam’s population lives along its 3,200-kilometer coastline and in the low-lying Mekong Delta.
- The Mekong Delta produces more than half of Vietnam’s rice and other staples and over 60 percent of its shrimp (ADB).
- Salinity intrusion and prolonged dry spells are highlighted as threats to agriculture in the delta.
- National coastlines cited: Indonesia 54,700 kilometers; Philippines 36,300 kilometers.
- In the Philippines, an average of 20 typhoons make landfall yearly, "with increasing destructiveness."
Emission pledges, renewables, and energy access
- ASEAN leaders approved a plan targeting a 23 percent share of renewables in the region’s energy mix by 2025, up from 10 percent in 2015.
- National pledges (partly or wholly conditional on international funding):
- Indonesia: pledged to reduce emissions by 29 percent by 2030; could increase to 41 percent with outside support.
- Vietnam: analogous targets of 8 percent and 25 percent.
- The Philippines: made only a conditional pledge, of a 70 percent reduction.
- Even conditional pledges "will result in higher global warming than envisaged under the Paris Agreement," underscoring the need for more ambitious goals.
- Energy access and fuel use figures:
- IEA estimates 65 million Southeast Asians lack electricity.
- IEA estimates 250 million use biomass (firewood and animal manure) for cooking fuel.
- Renewable energy capacity has increased (notably solar and wind) but remains limited; countries remain reliant on fossil fuels.
Policy conflicts and mitigation options
- Subsidies for petroleum products and electricity intended to protect poorer populations conflict with goals to reduce fossil fuel use; subsidies boost fuel demand and weaken competitiveness of cleaner fuels.
- ADB-Potsdam Institute study: subsidies are estimated to cost governments more than what it would take to meet the region’s Paris Agreement goals.
- Given political and practical barriers to subsidy reform and low-carbon technology adoption, preventing deforestation is identified as a cost-effective emissions reduction strategy.
- Increasing agricultural productivity could reduce the need to clear forests.
- Incentives highlighted as necessary to spur renewable adoption and efficiency: tax breaks, duty-free imports, preferential loans, easier access to financing.
Emerging opportunities and global links
- Declining costs of solar and wind could boost investment in local manufacturing and improve energy efficiency.
- Malaysia and Thailand are becoming global players in solar-panel manufacture, aided by Chinese investment.
- Significant increases in renewable-energy investment have occurred in Southeast Asia since the start of this century, suggesting a potentially large market for renewables if incentives and financing are provided.
- Quote: "Policies and recommendations alone are not enough... Businesses need incentives to embrace renewable energy or environmentally friendly technologies, as well as for encouraging reforestation." — Phong, ISET-International
Source: The Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Asia, F&D Magazine, September 2018.
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