IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with The Sultanate of Oman

IMF News, January 15, 2026

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Canonical URL: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with The Sultanate of Oman

Oman’s economy demonstrated strong resilience to shocks, with economic activity expanding amidst low inflation and fiscal and external positions remaining strong.
Growth outcomes and near-term developments:
- Real GDP growth: 1.6 percent in 2024.
- Real GDP growth: 2.3 percent (year on year) in the first half of 2025.
- Real nonhydrocarbon GDP growth: 3.5 percent (year on year) in the first half of 2025.
Inflation:
- Consumer prices averaged 0.6 percent in 2024.
- Inflation edged up to 0.9 percent during January-October 2025.
Medium-term outlook:
- Growth is expected to strengthen further as oil production gradually returns to capacity and nonhydrocarbon activity remains robust, supported by reforms under Vision 2040 and large-scale investment projects.

Fiscal outcomes and developments:
- Overall fiscal balance estimated at 0.7 percent of GDP in 2025 (surplus).
- The nonhydrocarbon primary deficit is estimated to have narrowed by 2 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP in 2025.
- Government debt stood at 36.1 percent of GDP by September 2025.
External outcomes:
- The current account balance is estimated to have turned into a deficit of 1.1 percent of GDP in 2025, weighed down by softer oil prices.
Selected oil & production indicators (2025):
- Average crude oil export price: 70.6 US$/barrel.
- Crude and condensates oil production: 1.005 (in millions of barrels/day).
- Natural gas production: 152.3 (in millions of cubic meters per day).

The 2025 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) found:
- The financial sector to be resilient against severe shocks.
- Banks remain sound, with ample capital and liquidity buffers and robust profitability.
Monetary and financial policy recommendations from Directors:
- Implement the Treasury Single Account and transition to an active liquidity management framework to strengthen monetary policy transmission.
- Ensure the Central Bank of Oman’s expanded development mandate remains anchored in price and financial stability objectives.
- Operationalize a macroprudential strategy; continue to enhance supervision and regulation.
- Improve AML/CFT frameworks; further strengthen financial safety net and crisis management frameworks.
- Deepen capital markets and address structural impediments to SME financing.

Downside risks (tilted to the downside in the near term):
- Escalation of trade tensions and geoeconomic fragmentation weakening global demand and oil prices.
- Renewed regional geopolitical tensions disrupting trade and dampening tourism and investment.
Upside scenarios:
- Higher oil prices from a global growth upturn or intensified geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply.
- Accelerated structural reforms bolstering confidence and enhancing economic diversification.

Directors’ overall view:
- Agreed with the thrust of staff appraisal; commended Oman’s resilience and steady reform implementation under Vision 2040.
- Highlighted robust expansion of nonhydrocarbon activities and strengthening fiscal and external positions.
- Emphasized sustaining prudent policies and reform momentum to diversify the economy and enhance potential growth.
Key fiscal policy recommendations:
- Further advance tax policy and administration reforms.
- Phase out untargeted subsidies while protecting the most vulnerable.
- Rationalize non-essential spending.
- Reinforce fiscal frameworks, governance, and transparency: develop a fiscal rule; strengthen public investment management; strengthen budget preparation and execution.
- Consolidate stabilization funds; strengthen debt management; develop sovereign asset-liability management.
Structural and labor market recommendations:
- Narrow the public private-sector wage gap.
- Increase female labor force participation.
- Boost educational and vocational training outcomes.
- Improve the business environment, SOE transparency, and data provision.
- Pursue deeper trade integration and advance digitalization and AI readiness to develop a competitive nonhydrocarbon tradable sector.

Growth and inflation:
- Real GDP growth: 1.6 percent (2024); 2.3 percent (H1 2025).
- Real nonhydrocarbon GDP growth: 3.5 percent (H1 2025).
- Consumer prices (average): 0.6 percent (2024); 0.9 percent (Jan–Oct 2025).
Fiscal and debt metrics:
- Overall balance: 0.7 percent of GDP (2025).
- Nonhydrocarbon primary deficit narrowed by 2 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP (2025).
- Government debt: 36.1 percent of GDP (by September 2025).
External and oil sector:
- Current account balance: deficit of 1.1 percent of GDP (2025).
- Average crude oil export price: 70.6 US$/barrel (2025).
- Crude and condensates production: 1.005 (millions of barrels/day) (2025).
- Natural gas production: 152.3 (millions of cubic meters per day) (2025).

Source: IMF press release, January 15, 2026.