IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Belgium
IMF News, February 23, 2026
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- Published: February 23, 2026
Main findings and near-term outlook
- Economic activity remained solid amid shocks and heightened uncertainty.
- Growth decelerated to 1.1 percent in 2024 and is expected at 1.1 percent in 2025.
- Growth is expected to slow in 2026 but return to its 1.3 percent potential in the medium term.
- Headline inflation eased to 2.2 percent y/y at end 2025; services price inflation has been slower to recede.
- Labor market performance remains strong but shows signs of softening; deterioration in labor-cost-competitiveness has halted.
- Lower energy costs and slower wage growth should help inflation stabilize around the 2 percent target.
- The external current account deficit is projected to narrow gradually as external demand recovers over the medium term.
- Downside risks: weaker external demand, geopolitical and trade tensions, prolonged uncertainty.
Risks and vulnerabilities
- Important risks that could worsen the outlook:
- Global and trade uncertainties, higher tariffs, or tighter financial conditions could lower growth.
- Supply-chain disruptions could raise inflation.
- Implementation challenges could hinder reforms and fiscal consolidation.
- Risk premia could rise more than expected, and debt dynamics worsen.
- Structural fiscal deficits, rising public debt, deteriorated price-competitiveness, and a weaker external position are persistent scars.
Fiscal assessment and recommendations
- Further fiscal consolidation is needed to lower deficits and debt vulnerabilities and restore external balances.
- Directors noted measures in the 2026 fiscal budget and under the EU economic governance framework but considered additional fiscal adjustment necessary to stabilize public debt and place it on a firm downward path.
- Recommended fiscal priorities:
- Prioritize further reductions in current spending.
- Increase the efficiency of public investment and social spending.
- Streamline tax expenditures.
- Ensure regions and communities contribute to fiscal adjustment.
- Preserve growth-enhancing investment.
- Effective implementation of pension reform is critical.
- Strengthen coordination across federal, regional and community governments for durable multi-year consolidation.
Structural reforms and competitiveness
- Continued domestic structural reforms and efforts with EU partners are vital to:
- Boost employment despite aging.
- Raise productivity and competitiveness.
- Soften the impact of fiscal consolidation.
- Specific recommendations:
- Further amend employment protection legislation.
- Strengthen active labor market policies.
- Revisit the wage-setting mechanism to better align wage growth with productivity.
- Deepen the EU single market, advance the savings and investment union, and integrate the energy market.
Financial sector and macroprudential policy
- The financial sector remains resilient, though pockets of vulnerability warrant continued close monitoring.
- Macroprudential policy guidance:
- Continue to focus on maintaining sufficient buffers.
- A further increase in the counter-cyclical capital buffer would be needed if overall risks do not abate.
- Encourage continued progress in implementing the 2023 FSAP recommendations—including those that require legislative action—and further strengthening the AML/CFT framework.
Executive Board Assessment (summary of Directors’ views)
- Directors welcomed Belgium’s resilience amid successive shocks.
- Emphasized that sustained fiscal consolidation combined with well-sequenced, deeper structural reforms is essential to reduce vulnerabilities, strengthen fiscal and external balances, and safeguard the sustainability of Belgium’s social model.
- Welcomed progress in tax, pension, labor market and healthcare reforms but stressed steadfast implementation and additional efforts to boost potential growth.
Selected quantitative indicators (as presented in Table 1)
- Real GDP growth:
- 2023: 1.7
- 2024: 1.1
- 2025: 1.0
- 2026: 1.2
- 2027: 1.3
- Domestic demand:
- 2023: 1.5
- 2024: 1.4
- 2025: 1.6
- Private consumption:
- 2023: 2.0
- Public consumption:
- 2023: 2.7
- 2025: 1.8
- 2026: 2.4
- Gross fixed investment:
- 2023: 3.1
- 2024: 0.1
- 2025: 0.9
- 2026: 1.9
- Stockbuilding (contribution to GDP growth):
- 2023: -0.4
- 2024: -0.5
- 2025: -0.3
- 2026: 0.0
- Exports, goods and services:
- 2023: -7.2
- 2024: -1.7
- 2025: 2.3
- 2026: 2.8
- Imports, goods and services:
- 2023: -7.6
- 2024: -1.3
- 2025: 2.5
- 2026: 3.3
- Household saving ratio:
- 2023: 14.1
- 2024: 12.9
- 2025: 11.5
- 2026: 11.4
- 2027: 11.6
- 2028: 11.8
- 2029: 12.0
- Unemployment rate (in percent):
- 2023: 5.5
- 2024: 5.7
- 2025: 6.1
- 2026: 6.2
- 2027: 6.0
- 2028: 5.9
- 2029: 5.8
- Employment growth:
- 2023: 0.3
- 2024: 0.5
- 2025: 0.4
- Consumer prices (HICP):
- 2023: 4.3
- 2024: 2.1
- Core CPI (HICP):
- 2023: 3.4
- 2024: 2.2
- Public finance (percent of GDP):
- Revenue 2023–2027: 48.8; 49.7; 49.8; 50.0; 50.3
- Expenditure 2023–2031: 52.8; 54.1; 55.0; 54.8; 54.9; 55.1; 55.4; 55.8; 55.9
- General government balance 2023–2029: -4.0; -4.4; -5.2; -5.0; -5.1; -5.5; -5.6; -5.6; -5.6
- Structural balance 2023–2028: -4.3; -4.5; -5.3; -4.8; -4.9
- Structural balance (excl. Covid measures): -4.2
- Structural primary balance 2023–2028: -2.3; -3.0; -2.4; -2.1; -2.0; -2.2
- Primary balance 2023–2024: -2.9; -2.5
- General government debt 2023–2031: 102.4; 103.9; 107.2; 109.7; 112.1; 114.4; 116.6; 119.1; 121.4
- External balances:
- Goods and services balance 2023–2025: -1.1; -0.9; -0.7
- Current account 2023–2025: -1.5; -1.0
- NEER, ULC-styled (2005=100):
- 2023: 97.6
- 2024: 97.8
- REER, ULC-based (2005=100):
- 2023: 103.4
- 2024: 102.1
- Gross national savings (in percent of GDP) 2023–2031:
- 2023: 25.5
- 2024: 24.1
- 2025: 22.6
- 2026: 23.0
- 2027: 22.9
- 2028: 23.2
- 2029: 23.4
- 2030: 23.5
- 2031: 23.8
- Gross national investment (in percent of GDP) 2023–2026:
- 2023: 25.3
- 2024: 24.5
- 2025: 24.0
- 2026: 23.9
- Nominal GDP (in billions of euros) 2023–2031:
- 2023: 602.4
- 2024: 620.3
- 2025: 636.3
- 2026: 653.9
- 2027: 671.9
- 2028: 691.6
- 2029: 712.0
- 2030: 733.1
- 2031: 755.6
- Population (in millions):
- 2023: 11.7
- 2024: 11.9
- 2025: 12.1
Press Release No. 26/057 — February 23, 2026. IMF Communications Department.