Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 4, 2026
IMF News, June 4, 2026
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 4, 2026
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Published: June 4, 2026
Announcements and IMF leadership travel
- Managing Director travel and engagements:
- June 9: Brussels, One Europe, One Market Summit.
- June 11: Eurogroup and ECOFIN meetings in Luxembourg; present findings of the 2026 Euro Area Annual Consultation.
- June 12–14: Visit Andorra; meet authorities; attend ceremony celebrating Andorra's IMF membership.
- June 15–16: Évian-les-Bains, France, G7 Leaders’ Summit.
- June 17–18: Vienna, fireside chat with the Governor of the Central Bank of Austria for the 53rd Annual Economic Conference; sign memorandum of understanding to renew collaboration through the Joint Vienna Institute.
- June 22: Sofia, Bulgaria, meetings with counterparts.
- First Deputy Managing Director Dan Katz:
- June 9–12: Japan meetings and event at the University of Tokyo.
- June 17: Fireside chat at the Atlantic Council's Geoeconomics Center on stablecoins, tokenization, and cross-border payments.
- June 22–23: United Kingdom meetings with financial sector and Bank of England.
- Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura:
- June 4–5: Visit Thailand; meet Deputy Prime Minister and senior officials on medium-term policy priorities and 2026 Annual Meetings preparations.
- Deputy Managing Director Bo Li:
- June 10: Deliver opening remarks at IMF HQ for launch of StatGPT, the Fund's AI-powered platform for official statistics.
- June 23: Dalian, China, speak on an energy security panel at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meetings of New Champions.
U.S. macroeconomic assessment and inflation outlook
- Growth and activity:
- Current moderate growth of around 2 percent.
- Q1 2026 GDP expanded by 1.6 percent, reflecting rebound in government consumption after the Q4 2025 shutdown.
- Investment is strong; large capital imports have reduced net exports.
- Labor productivity: output per hour grew cumulatively by 2.7 percent per year over the past three years.
- Job growth slowing due to both lower labor supply and slowing labor demand.
- Inflation and policy implications:
- Pass-through from higher tariffs gradually materializing into inflation.
- Renewed headline inflation pressure from higher oil prices tied to the war in the Middle East.
- IMF projects inflation in the U.S. will return to the 2 percent target by end 2027 (return to target was previously mid-2027).
- Assessment: upside risks to inflation imply the Fed’s policy actions “will need to proceed with caution” and be carefully calibrated to incoming data; clear Fed communication remains essential.
WTO consultations and IMF role on tariff-related balance of payments statements
- May 5 Balance of Payments Committee meeting at the WTO agreed to proceed with consultations regarding U.S. tariff notifications.
- IMF participation:
- IMF will participate in these WTO consultations in line with institutional responsibilities and the established framework for collaboration with the WTO.
- IMF role: provide a statement on the member’s (U.S.) macroeconomic balance of payments position.
- Basis: Recently concluded Article IV Consultation for the U.S. will provide a basis for that statement.
- Timing: No precise timing available yet; IMF will share details, including on potential publication of a statement, once determined.
Oil markets, inventories, and implications for inflation and growth
- Price and supply movements:
- Oil prices increased by about 35 percent since the start of the war in the Middle East.
- Relative to the WEO reference scenario assumptions, oil prices are now only about 3 percent higher.
- Bulk of the increase occurred in early March when oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stopped.
- About 14 million barrels per day of oil production have been curtailed due to damaged or shut major oil facilities.
- Inventories and refined products:
- Global strategic and commercial inventories stood at a five-year high of more than 8 billion barrels before the war.
- Inventories are expected to reach a five-year low of 7.5 billion barrels in July.
- Reserves of oil products are also low: European and Asian jet fuel prices up 35 percent from pre-war levels; gasoline prices up about 40 percent since the start of the war.
- Modelling and forecasts:
- IMF uses the market futures curve for oil in its forecasts (does not produce an in-house oil price path).
- Current futures curve shows spot price higher than futures, reflecting near-term risk premium.
- Key determinant for speed of price normalization: duration of the war and timing of the Strait of Hormuz reopening; infrastructure damage may delay full transmission of any reopening to spot markets and supply chains.
- Policy stance:
- Best resolution for market stability is a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, but drawdowns and rerouting are already occurring.
- IMF did not comment on specific policy measures (e.g., licensing decisions) but noted final decisions on such measures rest with respective authorities.
Fiscal policy guidance, with emphasis on Africa and low-income countries
- Fiscal space concerns:
- The oil/war shock occurs when many countries’ fiscal space is already constrained after a series of shocks.
- IMF advice: be prudent with fiscal responses; target support to the most vulnerable households and firms if fiscal support is needed.
- Domestic resource mobilization:
- Key pillar of IMF advice—especially in Africa—given low revenue-to-GDP ratios in many low-income and African countries.
- Emphasis on raising domestic revenues and developing local capital markets to mobilize homegrown savings for development needs.
IMF engagement and financing actions for member countries (selected)
- Bangladesh:
- Authorities have requested a new IMF-supported program.
- Existing arrangements: $5.5 billion ECF, EFF, and RSF are in place (noted as existing).
- IMF staff are discussing reform agenda and policy priorities with authorities; as discussions progress, a Staff-Level Agreement would lead to presentation to the IMF Board and cancellation of prior program.
- Key country vulnerabilities noted: high inflation, banking sector weaknesses, low revenue mobilization.
- The Gambia:
- Authorities requested a 20 percent of quota augmentation and a six-month extension of the program with rephasing of access; to be presented to the Executive Board.
- Burkina Faso:
- Staff-Level Agreement reached on augmentation of access under the ECF of $51 million, driven partly by higher balance of payments needs due to higher fertilizer costs.
- Ethiopia:
- IMF to propose rephasing of disbursements to bring forward about $200 million this year to address immediate war impact.
- Authorities have taken steps to modernize monetary and exchange rate framework (FX trading platform, eliminate surrender requirements on services exports, ease retail transaction limits); parallel market premium has reduced in recent months.
- Fuel subsidy removal: program includes a government contribution target to the Productive Safety Net Program to protect vulnerable households; intention to expand the program to all regions over coming years.
- IMF encourages creditors and parties to reach debt resolution to restore durable debt sustainability.
- Malawi:
- Discussions on a new fund-supported program accelerated; further news expected soon.
- Senegal:
- IMF team scheduled to visit during the week of June 15th to continue technical discussions on macro outlook, financing needs, and reform priorities to address significant debt vulnerabilities.
- IMF stated it will refrain from commenting on domestic political developments.
- Iraq:
- IMF welcomes formation of new government and looks forward to engagement; no further program details provided in the briefing.
- Egypt:
- Staff mission visited Cairo in May for Seventh Review under the EFF and Second Review under the RSF.
- Discussions focused on authorities’ response to the war, policy package, and structural reform progress.
- Authorities’ policy package aimed to:
- Maintain a flexible exchange rate regime.
- Ensure appropriately tight monetary policy to reduce inflation.
- Continue fiscal consolidation to strengthen debt sustainability.
- Enhance social safety nets to protect the most vulnerable.
- Accelerate structural reforms to reduce the state footprint, strengthen governance, and promote private sector participation.
- Good progress during the mission; discussions continue virtually toward a Staff-Level Agreement with aim to hold a Board meeting this summer.
- An updated state ownership policy is expected to be published by the Egyptian authorities.
- Argentina:
- IMF Executive Board approved the Second Review of the EFF and concluded the 2026 Article IV Consultation; a combined Staff Report has been published.
- Key achievements and metrics:
- Annual inflation fell from around 200 percent at end-2023 to 30 percent today.
- Fiscal deficit reduced by about 5 percentage points of GDP.
- Argentina recorded consecutive primary fiscal surpluses for the first time in nearly two decades.
- Poverty fell from over 50 percent to under 30 percent in recent years.
- Since start of 2026, Central Bank purchased $10 billion in foreign exchange; net international reserves have risen by over $7 billion and are close to year-end targets.
- Argentina’s spreads narrowed to below 500 basis points; country was recently upgraded by one credit rating agency.
- Policy direction: authorities committed to fiscal anchor with further planned tax, pension, and fiscal framework reforms; gradual reduction in trade taxes and adoption of more predictable pension indexation formula highlighted.
- Financing questions noted: discussion around return to international markets, alternative financing (e.g., repo), and $4.3 billion in debt payments set for early July referenced by questioners.
- Venezuela:
- May 30 meeting: Managing Director met Venezuela’s Vice President for Economic Affairs, Calixto Ortega Sánchez, at IMF HQ.
- Outcomes:
- Discussed IMF support to strengthen macroeconomic stability and a path to holding an Article IV Consultation.
- Focus areas for immediate capacity development: fiscal management, strengthening the monetary policy framework, and improving macroeconomic statistics.
- Agreement to deepen technical engagement and provide near-term technical assistance.
- IMF is not yet involved in debt restructuring or the authorities’ DSA efforts.
- Bilateral augmentations, rephasing, or program progress summary:
- Specific country actions being prepared/presented to the Board: The Gambia (20 percent of quota augmentation + six-month extension proposal), Burkina Faso ($51 million augmentation under ECF), Ethiopia (rephasing to bring forward about $200 million), Malawi (new program discussions accelerated).
Financial stability, AI, and trade-related risks
- AI models and financial stability:
- IMF is conducting work on implications of frontier AI models for financial systems; blog by Tobias Adrian (Financial Counselor) highlighted as preliminary work.
- Recommendation: regulators and supervisors should step in to understand technological infrastructure and assess potential vulnerabilities; IMF analyzing impacts across members with different financial system sophistication.
- Trade: reconfiguration and policy stance
- IMF view: global trade patterns are reconfiguring (“reconfiguration of global trade” over last 18 months).
- IMF encourages members to keep trade as an engine of growth, explore opportunities for regional integration in trade and finance, and seek cooperative solutions to trade disagreements (including tariff measures).
- Tariff measures and WTO consultations are being monitored; IMF will provide balance of payments statements when requested in WTO consultations.
Health shocks and emergency financing
- Ebola outbreak monitoring:
- IMF is monitoring the Ebola outbreak (DRC, Uganda, South Sudan) for potential economic impacts and is engaging with authorities and development partners.
- As of this briefing, IMF has received no requests for emergency financing related to the Ebola outbreak.
Final operational notes and embargo
- IMF will continue bilateral follow-ups with media on unanswered questions via media@imf.org or the Press Center.
- Transcript to be made available on IMF.org following the embargo.
Press Briefing Transcript: Julie Kozack, Director, Communications Department, June 4, 2026.