IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Uzbekistan
IMF News, June 18, 2026
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- Published: June 18, 2026
Summary
- Uzbekistan’s economy continued to perform strongly with robust growth, gradually moderating inflation, improving fiscal and external balances, and ample international reserves.
- The outlook is positive but subject to elevated uncertainty; downside risks include deterioration in global conditions and potential overheating, while faster reform implementation is an upside.
- Policy priorities: contain demand pressures, safeguard macro‑financial stability, and accelerate reforms to strengthen productive capacity and foster private‑sector‑led, sustainable growth.
Macroeconomic performance and outlook
- Real GDP growth:
- 2025: 7.7 percent
- Q1 2026: 8.7 percent year-on-year (y/y)
- Projected 2026: about 6.8 percent
- Projected 2027: 6 percent
- Inflation and prices:
- Consumer price inflation: 7.0 percent y/y in April 2026
- CBU target: 5 percent by end-2027
- Labor and welfare:
- Unemployment and poverty declined further (no numeric values provided beyond trend).
- External sector:
- Current account deficit: 3.9 percent of GDP in 2025 (reduction from prior years)
- Projected current account deficit: 3.2 percent of GDP in 2026
- International reserves: projected to remain comfortable, exceeding twelve months of imports by end-2026
- Drivers of improvement: buoyant economic activity, high gold prices, strong remittances, and non-gold exports.
Executive Board assessment — key messages
- Growth remains buoyant, supported by market‑oriented reforms; fiscal and external positions improved; inflation on a downward trend.
- Economic activity likely running above potential amid strong domestic demand; global uncertainty and risks remain large.
- Importance of prudently managing the current juncture while advancing supply‑side reforms to sustain durable and inclusive growth.
Fiscal policy recommendations
- Priorities:
- Limit overheating risks and rebuild buffers.
- Avoid adding to demand pressures in 2026, particularly given likely revenue overperformance.
- Contain within‑year expenditure adjustments to support disinflation and reinforce policy credibility.
- Medium‑term reforms:
- Enhance fiscal framework to insulate spending from volatile mineral revenues.
- Introduce a complementary operational anchor, such as a ceiling on the non‑mineral primary deficit.
- Revenue mobilization and institutions:
- Increase specific excise taxes, reduce exemptions and tax holidays, and strengthen tax and customs administration to reverse the decline in the tax‑to‑GDP ratio.
- Upgrade medium‑term budgeting, public investment management, treasury operations, and fiscal risk oversight (especially for SOEs and PPPs) to improve spending quality, efficiency, and transparency.
Monetary policy and exchange rate policy
- Monetary stance:
- Should remain firmly oriented toward durably anchoring inflation at the CBU’s target.
- With strong domestic demand and a likely positive output gap, maintaining a sufficiently restrictive stance is warranted; readiness to tighten further if disinflation stalls.
- Exchange rate and FX markets:
- Preserve recent increase in exchange rate flexibility to aid shock absorption, reserve protection, and inflation‑targeting effectiveness.
- Continue efforts to deepen FX markets, strengthen liquidity management, and phase out directed and preferential lending to enhance monetary transmission.
Financial sector and macro‑financial stability
- Implement FSAP recommendations decisively.
- Progress welcomed on capital buffers, borrower‑based measures, and supervisory frameworks, but momentum must be sustained.
- Priority actions:
- Accelerate restructuring and privatization of SOCBs.
- Strengthen asset quality recognition.
- Safeguard central bank autonomy.
- Financial inclusion should rely on competition, transparency, and sound risk management rather than directed/preferential lending.
Structural reforms and labor/climate policies
- Reduce state footprint and strengthen market institutions to lift productivity and private‑sector dynamism.
- Advance SOE reform via privatization where feasible and stronger governance where state ownership remains.
- Accelerate governance reforms, including whistleblower protection and asset declaration frameworks.
- Strengthen competition policy, operationalize sector regulators, and complete WTO accession.
- Labor market and climate policies:
- Address barriers to labor force participation (especially for women and youth), tackle skill mismatches, and reduce informality.
- Integrate climate considerations into public investment planning to improve energy efficiency, resilience, and decarbonization.
Data, statistics, and transparency
- Data are broadly adequate for surveillance, but further improvements are needed:
- Apply institutional sectorization consistently across macroeconomic datasets.
- Produce quarterly GDP.
- Align financial soundness indicators with international standards.
- Authorities committed to statistical modernization, supported by continued capacity development.
Selected economic indicators (2023–2027)
- Real GDP growth (percent change): 2023: 6.3; 2024: 6.7; 2025: 7.7; 2026 Proj.: 6.8; 2027 Proj.: 6.0
- Nominal GDP (in trillions of Sum): 2023: 1,262; 2024: 1,535; 2025: 1,850; 2026 Proj.: 2,154; 2027 Proj.: 2,465
- GDP per capita (in U.S. dollars): 2023: 2,922; 2024: 3,232; 2025: 3,846; 2026 Proj.: 4,528; 2027 Proj.: 4,957
- Population (in millions): 2023: 36.8; 2024: 37.5; 2025: 38.2; 2026 Proj.: 38.9; 2027 Proj.: 39.7
- Consumer price inflation (end of period, percent change): 2023: 8.8; 2024: 9.8; 2025: 7.3; 2026 Proj.: 5.0
- GDP deflator (percent change): 2023: 13.9; 2024: 14.1; 2025: 11.9; 2026 Proj.: 9.0; 2027 Proj.: 8.0
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -7.3; 2024: -4.7; 2025: -3.9; 2026 Proj.: -3.2; 2027 Proj.: -3.6
- External debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 50.8; 2024: 53.1; 2025: 54.2; 2026 Proj.: 51.8; 2027 Proj.: 49.5
- Exchange rate (in sums per U.S. dollar; end of period): 2023: 12,339; 2024: 12,920; 2025: 12,025
- Real effective exchange rate (ave, 2015 =100, decline = depreciation): 2023: 59.9; 2024: 56.9; 2025: 58.7
- Consolidated budget revenues (percent of GDP): 2023: 25.6; 2024: 25.2; 2025: 27.2; 2026 Proj.: 28.2; 2027 Proj.: 27.7
- Consolidated budget expenditures (percent of GDP): 2023: 30.2; 2024: 28.1; 2025: 29.3; 2026 Proj.: 29.7
- Consolidated budget balance (percent of GDP): 2023: -4.6; 2024: -3.0; 2025: -2.1; 2026 Proj.: -1.5; 2027 Proj.: -2.0
- Adjusted revenues 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 24.8; 2024: 24.2; 2025: 25.7; 2026 Proj.: 26.7; 2027 Proj.: 26.3
- Adjusted expenditures 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 28.6; 2024: 27.4; 2025: 27.5; 2026 Proj.: 27.5
- Adjusted fiscal balance 2/ (percent of GDP): 2023: -3.8; 2024: -1.6; 2025: -0.7; 2026 Proj.: -1.1
- Policy lending 3/ (percent of GDP): 2023: 0.8; 2024: 0.9; 2025: 0.5
- Public debt (percent of GDP): 2023: 30.7; 2024: 30.9
- Reserve money (percent change): 2023: 4.9; 2024: 9.5; 2025: 23.2; 2026 Proj.: 11.0
- Broad money (percent change): 2023: 12.2; 2024: 30.6; 2025: 36.6; 2026 Proj.: 18.4; 2027 Proj.: 15.4
- Credit to the economy (percent change): 2023: 14.0; 2024: 15.3; 2025: 16.7; 2026 Proj.: 15.7
Source: Press Release No. 26/214, June 18, 2026, IMF Communications Department.