IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Switzerland
IMF News, September 1, 2026
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- Published: September 1, 2026
Executive summary
- The Swiss economy has demonstrated resilience amid heightened global uncertainty and global energy price shock, benefiting from strong policy frameworks and economic flexibility.
- The Executive Board completed the Article IV Consultation and endorsed the staff appraisal on a lapse of time basis on August 25, 2026.
- The authorities consented to publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
Macroeconomic outlook and inflation
- 2025 growth (adjusted for sporting events): 1.5 percent (1.4 percent without adjustments).
- 2026 growth (adjusted for sporting events) expected: 0.8 percent (1.1 percent without adjustments).
- Growth projection: accelerate during 2027-28 before stabilizing at potential rate of 1.5 percent thereafter.
- Inflation developments:
- 2025 headline inflation: 0.2 percent.
- June 2026 headline inflation: 0.5 percent.
- June 2026 core inflation: 0.3 percent.
- Inflation projected to pick up to 0.6 percent in 2026 and remain low at 0.7 percent over the medium term (within the SNB’s price stability range).
- Current account surpluses: will remain large.
Risks to the outlook
- Risks mainly external and tilted to the downside.
- Key risk factors listed:
- Elevated geopolitical tensions (Middle East situation fragile despite recent improvement).
- Rebound in energy prices.
- Additional US tariffs from ongoing investigations weighing on exports.
- Entrenched trade barriers and fragmentation disrupting multinational supply chains and undermining export-oriented growth model.
- Upside scenario: lower energy prices and easing geopolitical tensions would bolster growth.
Executive Board assessment on policy stance
- Fiscal policy:
- The modest fiscal expansion in 2026 is appropriate given subdued growth and downside risks.
- Higher pension spending expected to more than offset additional revenues from OECD Pillar 2 implementation, resulting in a small general government deficit.
- Maintaining the debt brake's credibility amid rising long-term spending pressures will require addressing tradeoffs; debt brake is an important institutional strength.
- Recommendations: additional revenue mobilization and broader reforms to strengthen the efficiency and resilience of the tax system.
- Monetary policy:
- Current monetary policy stance is appropriate; SNB should remain prepared to adjust policy as conditions evolve.
- The mildly accommodative stance is consistent with maintaining price stability given subdued inflation and well-anchored expectations.
- Guidance:
- SNB should look through temporary supply-driven price movements but stand ready to tighten if inflationary pressures become persistent.
- A severe disinflationary shock with safe-haven inflows and franc appreciation could warrant additional monetary easing, including negative policy rates if required.
- Foreign exchange intervention (FXI):
- FXI can usefully complement monetary policy in exceptional circumstances, compliant with the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF).
- FXI should not substitute for necessary monetary policy adjustment and is most effective when used alongside other instruments.
Financial sector and macroprudential policy
- TBTF reforms:
- Authorities’ commitment to strengthening the Too-Big-To-Fail framework is welcome; passage and implementation should proceed.
- Proposed requirement for global systemically important banks to fully capitalize foreign subsidiaries with common equity tier-1 (CET1) capital would materially strengthen resolvability and should not be diluted.
- Introduction of the SNB’s Extended Liquidity Facility is welcome; establishment of a public liquidity backstop would further reinforce crisis-management framework.
- Continued efforts to strengthen FINMA’s resources, powers, and enforcement capabilities are important.
- Additional resilience measures:
- Vigilance warranted on residential real estate vulnerabilities: elevated property valuations, compressed rental yields, and pockets of weak borrower affordability.
- Recommendation to further strengthen macroprudential framework, including formalizing institutional arrangements and adding borrower-based measures.
- Supervisors should monitor risks from nonbank financial institutions, including insurers’ derivative exposures, data gaps, evolving cross-border linkages, and potential spillovers through covered bond and other funding markets.
- Continue strengthening operational resilience (including cyber threats) and improve AML/CFT risk-based supervision.
Structural reforms and fiscal sustainability
- Structural reforms essential to sustain growth and preserve fiscal sustainability amid demographic change.
- Recommended measures:
- Advance comprehensive pension and health care reforms to address long-term spending pressures and strengthen sustainability of social insurance systems.
- Encourage longer working lives, improve labor force participation, enhance workforce skills, and maintain openness to qualified migration.
- Reduce regulatory burdens, strengthen competition, and improve environment for investment and innovation—especially for small and medium-sized enterprises and in services.
- Continue progress with energy transition, strengthen energy security, and use market-based incentives to reduce emissions.
Key statistics (selected values from Table 1)
- Real GDP (Percent Change) — staff projections:
- 2025: 1.1
- 2026: 1.2
- 2027: 1.9
- 2028: 1.8
- Real GDP (adj. for sporting events):
- 2021: 5.9
- 2022: 3.5
- 2023: 1.5
- 2024: 0.8
- 2025: 1.7
- Total nominal GDP (billions of Swiss francs):
- 2021: 767.7
- 2022: 819.6
- 2023: 834.4
- 2024: 854.2
- 2025: 867.8
- 2026: 882.8
- 2027: 898.5
- 2028: 922.2
- 2029: 939.6
- 2030: 963.9
- 2031: 982.9
- Savings and investment (Percent of GDP):
- Gross national saving 2021–2028 (selected): 35.5; 34.4; 35.7; 35.8; 36.2; 36.4; 36.5; 36.0
- Gross domestic investment 2021–2024 (selected): 28.0; 26.6; 28.6; 26.8
- Current account balance (selected years): 2021: 7.4; 2022: 9.0; 2023: 5.8; 2024: 8.9; 2025: 6.4; 2026: 6.8; 2027: 7.1; 2028: 7.0
- General Government Finances (Percent of GDP):
- Revenue 2021–2031 (selected): 32.4; 31.6; 31.4; 31.9; 32.9; 33.4; 33.6; 33.7; 33.9; 34.0; 34.1
- Expenditure 2021–2026 (selected): 33.5; 30.4; 31.0; 31.5; 32.6; 33.8
- Balance (2021): -1.1
- Cyclically adjusted balance (2021): -1.0
- Gross debt 3/ (selected years): 42.7; 38.6; 39.8; 40.3; 39.4; 39.1; 38.5; 38.3; 37.6; 37.3
- Monetary and credit (Percent Change, Average):
- Broad money (M3) (selected): 4.5; 2.6
- Domestic credit, non-financial (selected): 3.8
- 3-month Treasury bill interest rate (%): -0.8
- Exchange rates and competitiveness:
- Nominal effective rate (avg., 2000=100) (selected): 129.9; 135.8; 144.4; 149.0; 154.5
- Real effective rate (avg., 2000=100) 4/ (selected): 105.8; 106.1; 109.7; 111.2; 112.7
Source: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Switzerland (Press Release No. 26/281), September 1, 2026.
