World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown
World Economic Outlook, April 2020
Source details
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- World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Gita Gopinath: The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great DepressionLoading component...Loading component...Growth Projections
- Published: April 6, 2020
Global projection and scenario
- The global economy is projected to contract sharply by –3 percent in 2020.
- Baseline scenario assumption: the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and containment efforts can be gradually unwound.
- Under the baseline scenario, the global economy is projected to grow by 5.8 percent in 2021 as economic activity normalizes, helped by policy support.
- The risks for even more severe outcomes are substantial.
Nature and scale of the shock
- The COVID-19 pandemic is inflicting high and rising human costs worldwide.
- Necessary protection measures are severely impacting economic activity.
- The projected 2020 contraction (–3 percent) is much worse than during the 2008–09 financial crisis.
Policy implications and recommended actions
- Effective policies are essential to forestall the possibility of worse outcomes.
- Measures to reduce contagion and protect lives are framed as an important investment in long-term human and economic health.
- Because the economic fallout is acute in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to support affected households and businesses domestically.
- Internationally, strong multilateral cooperation is essential to:
- Overcome the effects of the pandemic.
- Help financially constrained countries facing twin health and funding shocks.
- Channel aid to countries with weak health care systems.
Advanced economies and fiscal context
- Advanced economies entered the crisis with interest rates at historical lows and public debts, on average, higher than they had been over the past 60 years.
- They will emerge from the crisis with even higher public debts.
Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2020: The Great Lockdown
Content in this bundle
- Annex 2 — Data Sources, Interest Rate–Growth Differentials, and Fiscal Multipliers
- Annex 3.1–3.5. Macroprudential Regulation: Data, Dampening Effects, and Policy Responses
- CHAPTER 4 [ Annex]
- [CHAPTER 4 [ Annex] (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2020/april/english/annexch4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
- [CHAPTER 4 [ Annex] (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/weo/2020/april/english/annexch4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- Chapter 1
- Chapter 2
- Chapter 3
- Chapter 4
- dataset overview
- Dataset overview — WEO Chapter 2 Apr. 2020
- Dataset overview: WEO Chapter 3 Apr. 2020
- Weoapril 2020ch4
- Executive Summary
- Foreword
- IMF World Economic Outlook; The Great Lockdown: Table A1. Summary of World Output 1; April 2020
- Statsappendixb
- IMF World Economic Outlook; The Great Lockdown; Statistical Appendix; April 2020
- Preface
References
- Blog: Migration to Advanced Economies Can Raise Growth
- Blog: Making Economies More Resilient to Downturns
- Transcript of the Press Briefing on the April 2020 World Economic Outlook
- Blog by Gita Gopinath: The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression
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