Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2010: Leading the Global Recovery: Rebalancing for the Medium Term

Asia and Pacific, April 29, 2010

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One year after the deepest recession in recent history, Asia is leading the global recovery.
As in many emerging and developing markets, Asia rebounded swiftly during 2009 and in the first quarter of 2010.
In the near term, the region is expected to continue leading the global recovery.
The global crisis has highlighted the importance for Asia of ensuring that private domestic demand becomes a more prominent engine of growth in the medium term.

Recent Developments and Main Themes
- Overview
- Recent Developments
- Asia, the Inventory Cycle, and the Role of China
- Transitioning from Public to Private Domestic Demand?
- Are Large Capital Flows Threatening Financial Stability?
Projections, Risks, and Policy Challenges
- Projections for 2010–11
- Risks to the Outlook
- Policy Challenges

ANNEX––Low-Income Countries and Pacific Islands Countries
- A1 Asian Low-Income Countries: Recovery Prospects and Policy Challenges
- A2 Impact of the Global Crisis on the Pacific Island Countries
- A3 Restoring Macroeconomic Sustainability in Maldives

Boxes highlight topical analyses including:
- Recent Exchange-Rate Developments in Asia
- What is the Outlook for Japan’s Domestic Demand?
- China: An Extraordinary Investment Response in 2009
- Lessons from Past Episodes of Large Capital Inflows in Asia
- Assessing Monetary Policy Stances in Asia
- Boosting Consumption in China: Is Public Spending on Health the Right Medicine?
- Consumption and Financial Development in Asia
- Rebalancing Growth in Asia: What Role for Investment?
- The Asia GIMF Model and Policy Assumptions
Extensive tables and figures covering growth, demand composition, fiscal impulse, capital flows, financial conditions, labor markets, prices, sector shares, and model-based simulations.

Near-term: support the recovery while monitoring financial-stability risks associated with large capital flows and excess liquidity.
Medium-term: shift growth composition toward stronger private domestic demand to reduce export dependence and enhance resilience to external shocks.
Structural policies to address supply-side imbalances and to facilitate rebalancing, informed by model simulations and country-specific diagnostics.

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, April 2010: Leading the Global Recovery: Rebalancing for the Medium Term