Enhancing China’s Medium-Term Growth Prospects: The Path to a High-Income Economy
IMF Working Papers, October 2, 2013
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Malhar S Nabar, Papa M N'Diaye
- Published: October 2, 2013
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484354957.001
Summary and central findings
- China’s current growth model delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty.
- The model has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns.
- Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases.
- With reforms that accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain convergence toward the level of high income economies.
- Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies.
Major themes and analytical focus
- Total factor productivity (TFP) growth as the key driver for medium-term improvement in growth prospects.
- Need to rebalance the growth model away from capital accumulation toward productivity-enhancing reforms.
- Provincial-level evidence used to assess room for productivity improvement and convergence dynamics.
- Sectors and topics emphasized: Economic sectors, Employment, Expenditure, Labor, Production, Public expenditure review, Services sector, Total factor productivity.
Policy implications and recommended directions
- Accelerate the government’s reform agenda to reduce vulnerabilities associated with credit- and investment-driven growth.
- Implement reforms to boost TFP growth across the economy, including the service sector and areas highlighted by provincial evidence.
- Shift policy emphasis from sustaining capital accumulation to productivity-enhancing measures to preserve convergence toward high-income levels.
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- 基金组织工作文章 13/204 ; 提高中国的中期增长前景： 迈向高收入经济体之路 ; 作者：Malhar Nabar 和 Papa N’Diaye ; 2013 年 10 月