Topic 3: Building Resilience
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Overview
- Building resilience is a key topic under the FCDO-IMF partnership on research on the macroeconomics of low-income countries (LICs).
- The work addresses challenges that hinder sustained growth in LICs, including:
- COVID-19 pandemic.
- Natural disasters.
- Effects of climate change.
- Large outflows and inflows of labor due to developments such as conflicts.
- The partnership plans an extensive effort to understand how countries can build resilience in the face of such developments.
- Project Managers: Petia Topalova; Emine Boz.
- Contact: MacroResDev@imf.org.
Phase 2 (April 2015 to March 2017)
- Focus:
- Work under the theme of building resilience began in the last year of phase 2.
- Producing new research on optimal macroeconomic policies to help LICs enhance resilience to the effects of climate change and natural disasters.
- Achievements (examples):
- A research paper: "Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model".
- A policy paper: "Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF".
- Outputs: Referenced report for year 5 of the FCDO-IMF partnership lists all work produced under phase 2.
Phase 3 (April 2017 to March 2020)
- Focus:
- Extensions of the Debt, Investment and Growth (DIG) models, integrated assessment models (IAMs), and heterogeneous agents’ macroeconomic and distributional analysis models (MDAMs).
- Incorporate features capturing main channels through which natural disasters and climate change affect LICs.
- Analytical advances and policy relevance:
- For natural disasters, models help prioritize areas of risk mitigation and suggest ways of organizing and financing post-disaster recovery.
- For climate change, models illuminate short-run macroeconomic and growth implications of adaptation and the distributional impact of major policies: cap and trade, carbon tax, and phasing in of renewable energy.
- Achievements (examples):
- Paper: "Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States".
- Paper: "Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World".
- Policy paper: "Building Resilience in Developing Countries Vulnerable to Large Natural Disasters".
- Outputs: Referenced reports for year 6, year 7, and year 8 of the FCDO-IMF partnership list all work produced under phase 3.
Phase 4 (April 2020 to March 2025)
- Focus areas:
- Macro criticality of climate-change-related natural disaster shocks, including pandemic situations like COVID-19.
- Empirical examination of the economic consequences of severe epidemics and similar health-related shocks.
- Revisiting industry diversification and sector vulnerability upon natural disaster shocks.
- Integrated assessment on long-run impacts of climate change in LICs.
- Outputs: Upcoming reports for years 9–13 will list work produced under phase 4.
Cross-cutting research themes and methods
- Models and approaches:
- Debt, Investment and Growth (DIG) models.
- Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).
- Heterogeneous agents’ macroeconomic and distributional analysis models (MDAMs).
- Policy questions addressed:
- How to prioritize risk mitigation investments.
- How to organize and finance post-disaster recovery.
- Distributional effects of climate-mitigation policies (cap and trade; carbon tax; phasing in of renewable energy).
- Industry diversification and sector vulnerability to natural disaster shocks.
- Long-run impacts of climate change and severe epidemics on LIC macroeconomies.
Outputs inventory and administrative notes
- Outputs list referenced: "List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (Excel)".
- Related evaluations: "Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a FCDO-IMF Collaboration"; "External Review of the IMF/FCDO Collaboration".
- Administrative contact: MacroResDev@imf.org.
Content in this bundle
- June 2019
- June 2020
- June 2021
- June 2022
- June 2023
- June 2024
- June 2025
- Call to Donors to Strengthen IMF Research Capacity for Low-Income Countries
- MRLIC programme review — By March 2018
- List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (XLSX)
- Dec 2018, Vol.6
- Dec 2019, Vol.7
- Dec 2020, Vol.8
- Dec 2021, Vol.9
- Dec 2022, Vol.10
- Dec 2023, Vol.11
- Dec 2024, Vol.12
- Dec 2025, Vol.13
- Jun 2018, Vol.6
- Jun 2019, Vol.7
- Jun 2020, Vol.8
- Jun 2021, Vol.9
- Jun 2022, Vol.10
- Jun 2023, Vol.11
- Jun 2024, Vol.12
- Jun 2025, Vol.13 (PDF)
- Mar 2018, Vol.6
- Mar 2019, Vol.7
- Mar 2020, Vol.8
- Mar 2021, Vol.9
- Mar 2022, Vol.10
- Mar 2023, Vol.11
- Mar 2024, Vol.12 (PDF)
- Mar 2025, Vol.13
- Mar 2026, Vol.14
- Sep 2018, Vol.6
- Sep 2019, Vol.7
- Sep 2020, Vol.8
- Sep 2021, Vol.9
- Sep 2022, Vol.10
- Sep 2023, Vol.11
- Sep 2024, Vol.12
- Sep 2025, Vol.13 (PDF)
- Devarajan–O'Connell final report on the MRLIC project
- Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF (PDF)
- Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model (PDF)
References