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Staff Papers Logo    March 1998
Volume 45, Number 1
Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls
By Eliana Cardoso and Ilan Goldfajn

Full Text of This Article (PDF 2,328 K)

Abstract: This paper creates an index of capital controls to analyze the determinants of capital flows to Brazil, accounting for the endogeneity of capital controls by considering a government that sets controls in response to capital flows. It finds that the government reacts strongly to capital flows by increasing controls on inflows during booms and relaxing them in moments for distress. The paper estimates a vector autoregression with capital flows, controls, and interest differentials. It shows that controls have been tempoarily effective in altering levels an composition of capital flows but have had no sustained effects in the long run. [JEL F32,F41]

1998 International Monetary Fund