IMF Staff Country Reports

The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Equatorial Guinea’s economy remains confronted with a continuous decline in oil production. The overall fiscal surplus is estimated to have dropped to 0.3 percent of GDP from 13.6 percent in 2022, while the nonhydrocarbon primary fiscal deficit is expected at 23.3 percent of nonhydrocarbon gross domestic product (GDP), up from 22.7 percent of nonhydrocarbon GDP in 2022. Near and medium-term growth prospects appear challenging with the projected reduction in oil production and lacklustre growth in the non-oil economy due to underlying structural weaknesses. Real GDP growth is projected to contract by 5.5 percent in 2024, and the economy would remain on average in recession over the medium term. Fostering nonhydrocarbon growth and inclusion is critical to long-term macroeconomic and social stability.