Other Titles in the Occasional Paper Series



O C C A S I O N A L   P A P E R      
238
 
   
Stabilization and Reform
in Latin America:

A Macroeconomic Perspective
on the Experience Since the Early 1990s


Anoop Singh, Agnès Belaisch, Charles Collyns, Paula De Masi,
Reva Krieger, Guy Meredith, and Robert Rennhack

©2005 International Monetary Fund
February 2005

 Order Information
Foreword - Preface - Executive Summary
I Introduction
  References
II Taking Stock
  Main Economic and Social Outcomes
  Explaining the Outcomes
  Conclusion
  References
III Fiscal Sustainability
Lack of Short-Term Policy Constraints
Common Fragilities
Underlying Weaknesses
Fiscal Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges
References
IV Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes
Overview
Alternative Approaches to Monetary Stabilization
Macroeconomic Impact of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization Plans
Effects on Other Elements of Reform Programs
  Exit and Regime Change
  Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges
  References
V Latin American Financial Systems: Crises and Reforms
Key Characteristics of Latin American Financial Systems
  Underlying Weaknesses
  Banking Crises and Reforms
  Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges
References
VI Financial Dollarization in Latin America
Causes
  Managing the Risks
  Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges
References
VII External Vulnerabilities
Disappointing Outcomes of Trade Liberalization
Capital Flows to Latin America
  Low Trade Shares and Volatile Capital Flows Amplified Vulnerabilities
  Lessons, Policy Responses, and Challenges
References
VIII Lessons and Priorities for Future Agenda
Looking Back
Disappointments
  Explanatory Factors
Priorities for Future Agenda
  IMF Role: Supporting Growth Agendas
References
Boxes
2.1. Latin America: Labor Market Reforms
2.2. Latin America: Impediments to Business Activity and Growth
3.1. Chile’s Fiscal Consolidation in 1990s
3.2. Tax Amnesties in Argentina
3.3. Infrastructure Spending and Growth in Latin America
4.1. Exchange Rate Experience in Central America
4.2. Cyclical Impact of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization Plans
5.1. Finance for Growth: Experiences in Chile and Mexico
5.2. Do Brazilian Banks Compete?
5.3. Taxation of Financial Transactions in Latin America
5.4. Vulnerabilities from Offshore Banking
5.5. Cross-Border Financial Integration: Banking in Central America
7.1. NAFTA: Benefits and Challenges
Tables
ES1. Latin America: Policy Indicators, 1992 and 2002
ES2. Selected Latin American Countries: Real Per Capita GDP, 1998–2003
ES3. Latin America: Incidence of Poverty
ES4. Selected Latin America Countries: Total Change in Public Infrastructure Spending, 1990 to 2000
ES5. Selected Latin American Counties: Foreign Exchange Deposits
2.1. International Comparison: Growth in Real Per Capita GDP
2.2. Real Per Capita GDP, 1998–2003
2.3. Consequences of Crisis: Current Account Adjustment
2.4. Latin America: Incidence of Poverty
2.5. IMF Arrangements in Latin America, 1989–2004
2.6. International Comparison: Corruption Perception Index
3.1. Selected Latin American Countries: Composition of Public Debt, 2000
3.2. Selected Latin American Countries: Real Effective Exchange Rates and Foreign Currency Debt
3.3. Selected Latin American Countries: General Government Tax Revenues
3.4. Selected Latin American Countries: Value-Added-Tax (VAT) Revenue Productivity
3.5. Selected Latin American Countries: Cost of Tax Collection, 1998
3.6. Selected Latin American Countries: Earmarked Spending, 2002
3.7. Selected Latin American Countries: Estimates of Implicit Pension Debt in 1990s
4.1. Monetary Stabilization Plans: Objectives and Timing
4.2. Pre- and Post-Stabilization Inflation and Exchange Rate Developments
4.3. Latin America: Increases in Central Bank Independence
5.1. International Comparison: Financial Systems, 2003
5.2. Selected Latin American Countries: Structure of Banking Systems
5.3. Selected Latin American Countries: Assets and Loans of Public Banks
5.4. International Comparison: Bank Performance Indicators
5.5. Three Latin American Countries: Bankruptcy Frameworks
5.6. Latin America: Fiscal Costs of Banking Crises in 1990s
6.1. Dollarization Indicators, 2001
6.2. Selected Latin American Countries: Deposit and Loan Dollarization
6.3. Selected Latin American Countries with Low Dollarization: Risk-Management Arrangements
6.4. Latin America: Offshore Deposits
6.5. Selected Highly Dollarized Latin American Countries: Risk-Management Arrangements
7.1. Latin America: Regional Integration Initiatives, 1990–Present
7.2. International Comparison: Export Performance in Latin America and Asia
Figures
ES1. Latin America: Inflation
ES2. Four Latin American Countries: Public Debt
ES3. Four Latin American Countries: Real Effective Exchange Rates
ES4. International Comparison: Exports of Goods and Services
2.1. Selected Latin American Countries: Inflation Performance
2.2. Selected Latin American Countries: Growth Performance
2.3. Latin America: Real GDP
2.4. Selected Latin American and Asian Countries: Per Capita Incomes Compared with United States, 1950–2000
2.5. Selected Latin American Countries: Output Volatility
2.6. Selected Latin American Countries: Consequences of Crisis for Real GDP Growth
2.7. Latin America: Incidence of Poverty and Extreme Poverty
2.8. Latin America: Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction, 1990–2001
2.9. Global Indicators
2.10. Emerging Market Spreads
2.11. Latin America: Emerging Market Bond Spreads
2.12. Latin America: IMF-Supported Arrangements
2.13. Latin America: Contribution of Reforms to Economic Growth
2.14. Latin America: Structural Reform Indices
2.15. International Comparison: Per Capita Income and Governance, 2000
2.16. Latin America: Governance Ratings, 1985–2001
2.17. International Comparison: Governance Indicators, 2001
3.1. International Comparison: Government Net Debt, 1996
3.2. Selected Latin American Countries: Public Sector Balances
3.3. Selected Latin American Countries: Public Debt
3.4. International Comparison: Cyclical Sensitivity of Primary Balance
3.5. Brazil: Composition of Spending
3.6. Selected Latin American Countries: General Government Expenditure on Wages and Infrastructure
3.7. Brazil: Public Sector Primary Balance
3.8. Argentina: “Fiscal Skeletons” and Primary Balance
3.9. Argentina: “Fiscal Skeletons” and Public Debt Paths
4.1. Latin America: Fiscal Deficits and Inflation, 1980–2001
4.2. Latin America: Exchange Rate Developments
4.3. Inflation Under Alternative Stabilization Plans
4.4. Latin America: Real Effective Exchange Rates
4.5. Inflation Targeting in Latin America
5.1. Latin America: Boom and Bust in Credit Growth
5.2. Interest Spread in Latin America
5.3. Comparative Savings and Loan Ratios in Mid-1990s
5.4. Strength of Financial Regulatory Environment in Selected Countries
6.1. Selected Latin American Countries: Deposit Dollarization and Inflation, 1990–2001
6.2. Real Interest Rates in Selected Highly Dollarized Countries
6.3. Real Interest Rates in Non-Dollarized Countries
6.4. Public Sector Deficits in Highly Dollarized Countries
6.5. Selected Latin American Countries: Inflation and Real Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility, 1990–2002
6.6. Selected Latin American Countries: Reserve Coverage of Foreign Currency Deposits
7.1. Trade and Financial Integration Across Developing Regions, 1975–99
7.2. Selected Latin American Countries: Average Tariffs
7.3. International Comparison: Exports of Goods and Services
7.4. Selected Latin American Countries: Trade Openness, 2002
7.5. Selected Latin American Countries: Herfindahl Index for Exports
7.6. Selected Latin American Countries: Commodity Exports
7.7. Latin America: Net Private Capital Flows
7.8. Selected Latin American Countries: Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Flows
7.9. International Comparison: External Debt
7.10. Selected Latin American Countries: External Debt, 2000