| Preface |
| I |
Overview |
| II |
Philosophy and Approach |
|
Why a New Model? |
|
Structure of GEM |
|
Strengths and Weaknesses of GEM |
| III |
How Has GEM Been Used? |
|
Measuring the Benefits of Raising Euro Area Labor and Product Market Competition |
|
Should Monetary Policy Rules Differ Between Industrial Countries and
Emerging Market Countries? |
|
The Impact of Higher Oil Prices |
| IV |
Current Development Work |
|
Fiscal Policy |
|
International Asset Markets |
| V |
The Road Ahead |
| References |
| Boxes |
| 2.1 |
Estimating Parameter Values |
| 3.1 |
GEM Simulations of the Benefits of Greater Euro Area Competition |
| 3.2 |
Using GEM to Analyze Monetary Policy Rules |
| Tables |
| 2.1 |
Stylized View of the Strengths and Weaknesses of Successive Generations
of Macroeconomic Models |
| 3.1 |
GEM Estimates of the Long-Run Effects of More Competition-Friendly Policies
in the Euro Area |
| 3.2 |
MULTIMOD: Impact of a Permanent $5 a Barrel Increase in Oil Prices After
One Year |
| Figures |
| 2.1 |
Stylized View of Model Development |
| 2.2 |
Simple GEM Structure |
| 2.3 |
More Complicated GEM Structure |
| 2.4 |
Dynamic Responses to a One Percentage Point Hike in Interest Rates for
One Year: GEM Compared with Large Forecasting Models |
| 2.5 |
Dynamic Responses to a Hike in Interest Rates: GEM
Compared with a VAR |
| 3.1 |
Dynamic Effects of More Competition-Friendly Policies in the
Euro Area (Anticipated and Perfectly Credible) |
| 3.2 |
Taylor Trade-Off in Monetary Policy Analysis |
| 3.3 |
GEM: Impact of a Permanent 20 Percent Oil Price Hike After
One Year |
| 3.4 |
GEM: Impact of a Permanent and Temporary 20 Percent Oil
Price Hike After One Year |
| 4.1 |
Structural Fiscal Balances in the Major Economic Regions |
| 4.2 |
Sum of International Assets and Liabilities in Major Advanced
Economies |
| 4.3 |
Capital Constraints for Emerging Markets |
