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World Economic Outlook
World Economic Outlook
October 1997

A Survey by the Staff of the International Monetary Fund
©1997 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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Assumptions and Conventions
Chapter I.
132k pdf file
Global Economic Prospects and Policies
  Advanced Economies
Developing Countries
Transition Countries
Chapter II.
215k pdf file
Issues in the Current Conjuncture
Global Issues
Advanced Economies
Developing Countries
Transition Countries
Chapter III.
148k pdf file
EMU and the World Economy
EMU: A New Policy Regime
Establishing Conditions for a Successful EMU
Managing Uncertainties in the Preparations for EMU
External Effects of EMU
Reaping the Benefits of EMU: Importance of Fiscal and Labor Market Reforms
Chapter IV.
126k pdf file
Exchange Rate Arrangements and Economic Performance in Developing Countries
Changing Pattern of Exchange Rate Arrangements
Factors Underlying the Evolution of Exchange Rate Arrangements
Analytical Issues in the Choice of Regime
Macroeconomic Characteristics of Exchange Rate Regimes
Exchange Rate Arrangements: Problems and Policies
Challenges of Rapid Growth and Capital Inflows for Exchange Rate Regimes
Capital Account Convertibility
Chapter V.
119k pdf file
Monetary and Financial Sector Policies in Transition Countries
Recent Conduct of Monetary Policy
Development of Market-Based Instruments for Monetary Policy
Development of Efficient Banking Systems
Other Factors Affecting Conduct and Transmission of Monetary Policy
New Challenges for Monetary Policy
87k pdf file
I China—Growth and Economic Reforms
Economic Reforms
Sources of China’s Growth
The Unfinished Agenda


Implications of Structural Reforms Under EMU
Alternative Reform Scenarios for EMU
Sensitivity Analysis I: Aggregate Demand Shocks Under EMU
Sensitivity Analysis II: Asymmetric Demand Shocks Under EMU
121k pdf file
  1. Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections
  2. Alternative Exchange Rate Assumptions for Japan
  1. The European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact
  2. Asymmetric Shocks: European Union and the United States
  1. Currency Boards
  2. Dollarization
  1. Financial Sector Problems and Monetary Policy in Countries in Transition
  2. Relative Price Adjustment and Price Convergence in Transition Countries
  1. Hong Kong, China: Economic Linkages and Institutional Arrangements
  1. Scenario Assumptions
Statistical Appendix
293k pdf file
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
List of Tables
    Output (Tables A1–A7)
    Inflation (Tables A8–A13)
    Financial Policies (Tables A14–A21)
    Foreign Trade (Tables A22–A26)
    Current Account Transactions (Tables A27–A32)
    Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A33–A37)
    External Debt and Debt-Service (Tables A38–A43)
    Flow of Funds (Table A44)
    Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables A45-A46)
161k pdf file
  1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
  3. Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
  4. Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  5. Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  6. Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
  7. Capital Flows to Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Newly Industrialized Economies
  8. Major Industrial Countries: Questions About Inflationary Pressures
  9. Selected Latin American Countries: Macroeconomic Indicators of Cyclical Change
  10. Sub-Saharan Africa: Recent Economic Developments and Their Distribution
  1. European Union: Convergence Indicators for 1996, 1997, and 1998
  2. United States, Japan, and the European Union: Relative Economic Size and Relative Use of Currencies
  3. Implications of EMU for Europe and the Rest of the World—Simulation Results
  1. Developing Countries: Officially Reported Exchange Rate Arrangements
  2. Geographical Distribution of Officially Reported Exchange Rate Arrangements
  3. Implicit Weights of U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen in Nominal Values of Selected Asian Currencies
  4. Considerations in the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime
  5. Exchange Rate Regime and Main Source of Export Earnings
  6. Currency Crashes by Exchange Rate Regime
  1. Countries in Transition: Exchange Rate Regime and Monetary Policy Instruments, August 1997
  2. Countries in Transition: Annual Growth Rates of Broad Money and of Domestic Credit
  3. Countries in Transition: Real Interest Rates
  4. Countries in Transition: Income Velocity of Broad Money
  5. Countries in Transition: Money Multipliers
  6. Russia and the Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Rankings of Progress with Establishment of Market-Based Monetary Operations and Government Securities Markets
  7. Selected Countries in Transition: Interest Rate Spreads
  8. Countries in Transition: Changes in Consumer Prices, December 1995–December 1996
  9. Countries in Transition: Dollarization Ratios
  10. Selected Countries in Transition: Net Capital Inflows
  1. China: Alternative Estimates of the Sources of Economic Growth
  2. China: Sources of Growth During the Reform Period
  1. Simulation Results for Euro-Area Demand Shock
  2. Simulation Results for Asymmetric Demand Shock in the Euro Area
4 Correlation Coefficient of Output Growth with Anchor Areas, 1964–90
288k pdf file
  1. World Output and Inflation
  2. European Union: General Government Budget Positions
  3. Changing Relative Positions in the World Economy
  1. Major Industrial Countries: Output Gaps
  2. Major Industrial Countries: Monetary Conditions Indices
  3. Three Major Industrial Countries: Policy-Related Interest Rates and Ten-Year Government Bond Yields
  4. European Union and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence
  5. Selected Advanced Economies: Inflation
  6. Developing Countries: Inflation
  7. Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
  8. Equity Prices
  9. Major Industrial Countries: Average Earnings and Unit Labor Costs in the Manufacturing Sector
  10. Commodity Prices
  11. Major Industrial Countries: Effective Exchange Rates
  12. Selected Advanced Economies: Employment and Unemployment
  13. Selected Advanced Economies: Unemployment Rates
  14. Japan: Output Developments
  15. India and Pakistan: Macroeconomic Indicators
  1. Trade Within the European Union
  2. Selected Advanced Economies: Openness
  3. European Union: Inflation and General Government Balance
  4. European Union: Inflation, General Government Balance, and Gross Debt
  5. Selected Developing and Transition Countries: Trade and Financial Links with the European Union
  6. Selected Developing and Transition Countries: Shares of Trade with the European Union
  1. Developing Countries: Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes
  2. Developing Countries: Share of Output and Trade by Exchange Rate Regime
  3. Developing Countries: Growth and Inflation by Exchange Rate Regime
  4. Developing Countries: Openness by Exchange Rate Regime
  5. Developing Countries: Exchange Rate Movements of Countries with Pegged and Countries with Officially Declared Flexible Exchange Rate Arrangements
  1. Selected Countries in Transition: Inflation
  2. Latvia, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union: Importance of Seigniorage in 1996
  1. China: Indicators of Structural Transformation and External Opening
  2. China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the Reform Period
2 Japan: Real Effective Exchange Rate
Japan: World Economic Outlook Baseline and MULTIMOD Simulation Results
4 Correlation of Demand and Supply Shocks with Anchor Areas
6 Foreign Currency and Cross-Border Deposits
8 Countries in Transition: Overall Price Level Gaps, 1996