Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections
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Summary:
We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2024/058
Subject:
Climate change Environment Migration Natural disasters Population and demographics Population growth
Frequency:
regular
English
Publication Date:
March 15, 2024
ISBN/ISSN:
9798400270772/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2024058
Format:
Paper
Pages:
32
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