Program note

Morocco

Last Updated: April 5, 2013

Background

Morocco’s economic performance over the past decade has been sound overall. However, the crisis in Europe, high world commodity prices, and a poor harvest slowed growth in 2012 and put pressures on the fiscal and external accounts. Real GDP growth is estimated to have reached no more than 3 percent in 2012, down from almost 5 percent in 2011, while inflation remained low at 1.3 percent. The fiscal deficit deteriorated to 7.5 percent of GDP from 6.8 percent of GDP in 2011, mostly reflecting the rising cost of subsidies and a higher wage bill. The current account deficit widened, reflecting higher fuel and food prices and lower remittances. However, international reserves have stabilized at about four months of imports.

Role of the IMF

Morocco continues to face external risks linked to uncertainties in the euro zone and possible oil price increases. To guard against potential exogenous shocks, Morocco asked in 2012 for a credit line from the IMF under a 24-month PLL. This arrangement supports the authorities’ policy agenda to rebuild fiscal and external buffers and to address medium-term challenges by providing insurance against external risks. The authorities intend to continue to treat the arrangement as precautionary unless a severe deterioration of the external environment leads to actual balance of payment need.

The Challenges Ahead

• Sustained implementation of the authorities’ economic agenda, including the subsidies and pension reform and structural reforms to increase competitiveness, are crucial to preserving Morocco’s solid performance and to making further progress toward higher and more inclusive growth. The main challenges facing the authorities are to:
• Rebuild fiscal buffers and ensure medium-term fiscal sustainability. The authorities are committed to a consolidation path consistent with the medium-term fiscal objective of achieving a deficit of 3 percent of GDP by 2016. To this aim, costly universal subsidies need to be replaced by well-targeted social programs. Early and gradual implementation and clear communication are important for the success of the reform.
• Rebuild external buffers and strengthen competitiveness. Structural reforms to increase export diversification and competitiveness, and continued fiscal consolidation, are needed to support external sustainability. Morocco is also encouraged to move toward greater exchange rate flexibility as a way to enhance external competitiveness and the economy’s ability to absorb shocks, in coordination with other macroeconomic and structural policies. 
• Foster higher and more inclusive growth. This objective is to be supported by reforms aimed at enhancing potential growth and job creation; these include: addressing the needs of underdeveloped areas, strengthening economic governance by increasing transparency and accountability, improving the business climate, and strengthening ongoing active labor market programs. Further improving educational outcomes and reducing youth unemployment would also help boost potential growth.
• Maintain adequate monetary and financial conditions, and preserve the stability of the financial sector. This would be instrumental to ensure that appropriate credit is provided to the economy, and would provide a sound basis for higher growth.
• Sustain the delivery of difficult reforms in a context of high expectations and a volatile regional environment. Good communication and high-quality social dialogue will be essential to success.

• Morocco and the IMF
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