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Policy Responses to Commodity Price Movements

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the IMF Economic Review are organizing a conference on “Policy Responses to Commodity Price Movements”.

The conference will be hosted by the CBRT and will take place in Istanbul on April 6-7, 2012. The conference will provide a forum to discuss innovative research on policy responses to changes in commodity prices in advanced and developing economies and to facilitate the exchange of views among researchers and policymakers.


Disclaimer
The website contains papers and web links to papers that will be presented at the Policy Responses to Commodity Price Movements conference. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.
Policy Responses to Commodity Price Movements
Friday, April 6, 2012
8:00–8:45 am Registration
8:45–9:00 am Opening remarks Erdem Basci (CBRT)
9:00–10:30 am

Session 1: Commodity Prices and Responses of Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Chair: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (University of California, Berkeley)

Commodity Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model of StorageCommodity Price Movements in a General Equilibrium Model of Storage

PresentationDavid Arseneau (Federal Reserve Board) and Sylvain Leduc (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

Discussant: PresentationRaf Wouters (National Bank of Belgium)


Monetary Rules for Commodity TradersMonetary Rules for Commodity Traders

Luis Catão (IMF) and Roberto Chang (Rutgers University)

Abstract

Discussant: PresentationStefan Laseen (Riksbank)

10:30–10:45 am
***Coffee Break***
10:45–12:15 pm

Session 2: Monetary Policy and Commodity Price Inflation

Chair: Hakan Kara (CBRT)

Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price FluctuationsMonetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations

Martin Bodenstein (Asian Development Bank), PresentationLuca Guerrieri (Federal Reserve Board) and Lutz Kilian (University of Michigan)

Abstract

Discussant: PresentationGiovanni Lombardo (European Central Bank)


Optimal DevaluationsOptimal Devaluations

presentationConstantino Hevia (World Bank) and Juan Pablo Nicolini (Universidad Di Tella and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Abstract

Discussant: PresentationTommaso Monacelli (Università Bocconi)

12:15–1:45 pm
***Lunch Break***
2:00–4:15 pm

Session 3: Managing Commodity Price Shocks

Chair: Thomas Helbling (IMF)

Oil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open EconomyOil Price Uncertainty in a Small Open Economy

Yusuf Soner Baskaya (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), Timur Hülagü (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), and PresentationHande Küçük (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

Abstract

Discussant: Gianluca Benigno (LSE)


How to Spend a Windfall – Dealing with Volatility and Capital ScarcityHow to Spend a Windfall – Dealing with Volatility and Capital Scarcity

Ton S. van den Bremer (University of Oxford) and PresentationFrederick van der Ploeg (University of Oxford)

Abstract

Discussant: PresentationKamil Yilmaz (Koç University)


Public Investment in Resource Abundant Low-Income CountriesPublic Investment in Resource Abundant Low-Income Countries

Andrew Berg (IMF), presentationRafael Portillo (IMF), Shu-Chun S. Yang (IMF), and Luis-Felipe Zanna (IMF)

Abstract

Discussant: presentationGulcin Ozkan (University of York)

4:15–4:30 pm
***Coffee Break***
4:30–6:00 pm

KEYNOTE ADDRESS: “Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and InflationCommodity Prices, Monetary Policy and Inflation

presentationJosé De Gregorio (Universidad de Chile)


Introduction by Turalay Kenç (CBRT)

Abstract
Saturday, April 7
8:30–9:00 am Registration
9:00–11:15 am

Session 4: Dynamics of Commodity Prices

Chair: M. Ayhan Kose (IMF)

The Changing Relationship Between Commodity Prices and Prices of Other Assets with Global Market IntegrationThe Changing Relationship Between Commodity Prices and Prices of Other Assets with Global Market Integration

Barbara Rossi (ICREA, UPF, CREI and Duke University)

Abstract

Discussant: PresentationDomenico Giannone (Université Libre de Bruxelles – ECARES)


Do Financial Investors Destabilize the Oil Price?Do Financial Investors Destabilize the Oil Price?

presentationMarco J. Lombardi (European Central Bank) and Ine Van Robays (Ghent University)

Abstract

Discussant: PresentationSandra Eickmeier (Bundesbank)


On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks: The Role of StorageOn the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks: The Role of Storage

presentationDeren Unalmis (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), Ibrahim Unalmis (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) and D. Filiz Unsal (IMF)

Abstract

Discussant: Roland Straub (European Central Bank)

11:15–11:30 am
***Coffee Break***
11:30–1:00 pm

Session 5: Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes

Chair: Mehmet Yörükoglu (CBRT)


Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?Inflation Responses to Commodity Price Shocks - How and Why Do Countries Differ?

Abstract

PresentationGaston Gelos (IMF) and Yulia Ustyugova (IMF)

Discussant: PresentationMarcel Fratzscher (European Central Bank)


Macroeconomic Performance during Commodity Prices BoomsMacroeconomic Performance during Commodity Prices Booms

Luis Felipe Céspedes (UAI) and Andres Velasco (Columbia University)

Abstract

Discussant: PresentationSilvana Tenreyro (LSE)

1:00–2:30 pm
***Lunch Break***
2:45–4:45pm

Policy Panel: Policy Responses to Commodity Price Movements

Moderator: Olivier Blanchard (IMF)

Panelists:

presentationErdem Basci (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

PresentationHiroshi Nakaso (Bank of Japan)

PresentationCarlos Hamilton Araujo (Central Bank of Brazil)

Conference Program Committee: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (University of California at Berkeley and Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Thomas Helbling (IMF), A. Hakan Kara (CBRT), and M. Ayhan Kose (IMF)

Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo (IMF) and Ercan Tanrisal (CBRT)

Venue: The Marmara Taksim Hotel, Istanbul

Conference Program Committee

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (University of California at Berkeley and Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Thomas Helbling (IMF), A. Hakan Kara (CBRT), and M. Ayhan Kose (IMF)

Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo (IMF) and Ercan Tanrisal (CBRT)

Email: Commodity2012@imf.org