Emerging Asia’s Impact on Australian Growth : Some Insights From GEM

Author/Editor:

Benjamin L Hunt

Publication Date:

November 1, 2010

Electronic Access:

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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary:

Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia’s growth differential has had on Australia. The simulation analysis, which replicates some key features from the last decade, suggests that roughly 25 percent of Australia's growth over the last decade has been from emerging Asia’s growth differential over that period. Looking ahead, the analysis suggests that should emerging Asia continue to grow in a similar fashion, Australia’s growth dividend could almost double. On the other hand, if growth in emerging Asia remained strong, but became more balanced across the tradable and nontradable goods sectors then Australia’s growth dividend would be slightly lower than the estimate for the last decade.

Series:

Working Paper No. 10/262

Subject:

Frequency:

Quarterly

English

Publication Date:

November 1, 2010

ISBN/ISSN:

9781455210695/1018-5941

Stock No:

WPIEA2010262

Price:

$18.00 (Academic Rate:$18.00)

Format:

Paper

Pages:

25

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