Emerging Asia’s Impact on Australian Growth: Some Insights From GEM

Author/Editor: Hunt, Ben
Publication Date: November 01, 2010
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
Summary: Over the last decade, GDP growth in emerging Asia was roughly twice as fast as average world growth. The IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) is used to estimate the impact that emerging Asia’s growth differential has had on Australia. The simulation analysis, which replicates some key features from the last decade, suggests that roughly 25 percent of Australia's growth over the last decade has been from emerging Asia’s growth differential over that period. Looking ahead, the analysis suggests that should emerging Asia continue to grow in a similar fashion, Australia’s growth dividend could almost double. On the other hand, if growth in emerging Asia remained strong, but became more balanced across the tradable and nontradable goods sectors then Australia’s growth dividend would be slightly lower than the estimate for the last decade.
Series: Working Paper No. 10/262
Subject(s): Asia | Australia | Capital | Commodities | Cross country analysis | Economic growth | Economic models | Emerging markets | Imports | International trade | Labor productivity | Production growth | Real effective exchange rates | Trade integration

Author's Keyword(s): Emerging Asia | Productivity Growth | Rebalancing | Terms of Trade
Publication Date: November 01, 2010
Format: Paper
Stock No: WPIEA2010262 Pages: 25
US$18.00 (Academic Rate:
US$18.00 )
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