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Author/Editor:
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Burger, Philippe ; Cuevas, Alfredo ; Stuart, Ian ; Jooste, Charl
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Publication Date:
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March 01, 2011
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Electronic Access:
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Free Full text
(PDF file size is 1,194KB).
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
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Summary:
How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating the question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (OLS, VAR, TAR, GMM, State-Space modelling and VECM). The paper finds that since 1946 the South African government has ran a sustainable fiscal policy, by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, the paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/GDP ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.
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Order a print copy
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Series:
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Working Paper No. 11/69
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Subject(s):
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Economic growth | Economic models | Fiscal policy | Fiscal sustainability | Public debt | South Africa
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Author's Keyword(s):
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Fiscal reaction function | public debt | deficits. |
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English
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Publication Date:
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March 01, 2011
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Format:
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Paper
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Stock No:
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WPIEA2011069
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Pages:
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27
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Price:
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US$18.00 )
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Please address any questions about this title to
publications@imf.org
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