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Author/Editor:
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Olivier J. Blanchard ; Daniel Leigh
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Publication Date:
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January 03, 2013
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Electronic Access:
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Free Full text
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate
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Summary:
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
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Order a print copy
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Series:
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Working Paper No. 13/1
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Subject(s):
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Economic growth | Fiscal policy | Government expenditures | Economic forecasting | Economic models
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English
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Publication Date:
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January 03, 2013
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ISBN/ISSN:
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9781475576443/1018-5941
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Format:
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Paper
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Stock No:
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WPIEA2013001
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Pages:
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43
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Price:
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US$18.00 )
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Please address any questions about this title to
publications@imf.org
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