Assessing Fiscal Risks in Bangladesh
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
This paper identifies, quantifies, and assesses fiscal risks in Bangladesh. By performing sensitivity analysis and using stochastic simulations, it measures risks arising from shocks to GDP growth, the exchange rate, commodity prices, and interest rates. It also analyzes specific fiscal and institutional risks, such as those related to the pension system, the issuance of guarantees, the state-owned commercial banks, and the external borrowing and debt management strategy. The paper finds that fiscal aggregates are particularly sensitive to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. Other factors that could affect fiscal aggregates are the unfunded pension system and the limited institutional capacity.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2015/110
Subject:
Aging Expenditure Fiscal risks Labor Macroeconomic risks Pension spending Pensions Public debt Public financial management (PFM)
English
Publication Date:
May 19, 2015
ISBN/ISSN:
9781513551081/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2015110
Pages:
26
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