Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan: External Debt and Fiscal Sustainability
Prepared jointly by the IMF and the World Bank
February 6, 2001

Republic of Armenia and the IMF

Azerbaijan Republic and the IMF

Georgia and the IMF

Kyrgyz Republic and the IMF

Republic of Moldova and the IMF

Republic of Tajikistan and the IMF

Republic of Uzbekistan and the IMF

Poverty Reduction, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income CIS Countries

Prepared jointly by the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank and the European II Department of the IMF in consultation with the staffs of the Asian Development Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
February 4, 2002

Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the text of this pdf file (177 kb). The Russian version of these documents is available on the World Bank's website.


I. Introduction

II. Ten Years of Transition—Achievements and Remaining Challenges

    A. The Record of Macroeconomic Stabilization and Structural Reform
    The Role of Initial Conditions
    B. Poverty in the Low-Income CIS Countries
    C. External Debt
    Origins of the Debt Problem

III. Policy Priorities to Reduce Poverty and Promote Growth

    A. PRSPs and Country Ownership of the Reform Agenda
    B. The Challenge of Poverty Reduction
    C. Domestic Policy Priorities to Promote Growth
    D. Regional Policies and Challenges

IV. Policy Priorities to Reduce Poverty and Promote Growth

    A. Debt and Debt Service Indicators
    B. Current Strategy: A Case-by-Case approach
    C. Limits to Fiscal Adjustment
    D. Results of debt projections
    E. Risks to these programs

V. Conclusion


    1. Gross Domestic Product, 1990-2001
    2. Inflation, 1990-2001
    3. Income-Based Poverty Indicators
    4. Status of World Bank Public Expenditure Reviews
    5. General Government Social Expenditures in Selected Countries
    6. Key Domestic Policy Reform Priorities
    7. Production Shares in GDP, 2000
    8. Structure of External Debt, End-2000
    9. Fiscal Adjustment Under Baseline Scenario
    10. Primary Fiscal Balance
    11. Debt and Debt-Service Ratios
    12. Macroeconomic Assumptions for Debt Sustainability Analysis
    13. Summary of DSA results


    1. Real GDP During Transition
    2. Inflation During Transition
    3. Primary Fiscal Balance
    4. Income based Gini coefficients
    5. Progress with Governance and Enterprise Restructuring EBRD Transition Indicator
    6. Progress with Electric Power Reform
    7. Progress with Large-Scale Privatization EBRD Transition Indicator
    8. Investment Climate and Law and Order EBRD Transition Indicator
    9. Structure of External Public Debt, End-2000
    10. Debt Sustainability Under Baseline Scenario, 2000-2010
Text Boxes
    1. Quasi-fiscal activities in the CIS7
    2. Sources of growth over the medium term
    3. Debt reduction strategies: the Kyrgyz case
    4. HIPC Eligibility at End-2000

Annex I (pdf file, 430 kb)
Country Notes: Debt Sustainability and Policy Priorities to Ensure Growth in the CIS7 Countries
Statistical Appendix

A New Initiative for the CIS 7 (pdf file, 24 kb)