Poverty Reduction, Growth and Debt Sustainability in Low-Income CIS Countries
Prepared Jointly by the IMF and the World Bank
February 2, 2002

Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan: External and Fiscal Sustainability Background Paper
Prepared Jointly by the IMF and the World Bank
February 7, 2001

Republic of Armenia and the IMF

Georgia and the IMF

Kyrgyz Republic and the IMF

Republic of Moldova and the IMF

Republic of Tajikistan and the IMF

Transcript of a Joint Briefing by IMF European II Department Assistant Director, Mohammad Shadman-Valavi, and World Bank Sector Manager, Samuel Otoo, on External Debt and Fiscal Sustainability in Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan
March 08, 2001



Armenia, Georgia, Kyrgyz Republic, Moldova, and Tajikistan:
External Debt and Fiscal Sustainability

Jointly Prepared by the European II Department of the IMF and the
Europe and Central Asia Region of the World Bank
February 6, 2001

Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the full text (376 kb) of this pdf file

Contents

I. Introduction

II. Background

    A. Debt and Debt-Service Indicators
    B. The Genesis of the Debt Problem

III. External Debt and Fiscal Sustainability

    A. Scenario One
    B. Scenario Two
    C. Sensitivity Analyses
    D. Impact on Poverty and Social Services
    E. Conclusions

IV. Issues for Consideration

Figures

    1. Total Government and Government-Guaranteed External Debt as Share of GDP
    2. Nominal Government and Government-Guaranteed Debt as a Share of Total External Debt, End-1999
    3. Composition of Government and Government-Guaranteed Debt
    4. Index of Policy Reform
    5. Nominal Exchange Rate Movements vs. U. S. Dollar
    6. Nominal Exchange Rate Movements vs. Ruble
    7. Real Effective Exchange Rates
    8. Average Primary Fiscal Balances 2001-05
Text Boxes
    1. Energy Sector Issues
    2. Was the Growth of External Debt Foreseen?
    3. Impact of Devaluation on Debt Ratios
Tables
    1. Structure of External Debt, end-1999
    2. Debt Service Ratios in 1999
    3. Assumed Adjustment under Scenario One
    4. Debt and Debt-Service Ratios under Scenarios One and Two
    5. Stress Testing for Harder Borrowing Terms
    6. Stock of Domestic Debt as of December 31, 1999
    7. Poverty Levels and GNP Per Capita
    8. General Government Social Expenditures
    9. Fiscal Adjustment Assumed under Scenario One
Statistical Appendix
    1. Armenia
    2. Georgia
    3. The Kyrgyz Republic
    4. Moldova
    5. Tajikistan
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