2025 External Sector Report: Global Imbalances in a Shifting World
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- 2025 External Sector Report: Global Imbalances in a Shifting World
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 22, 2025
Overview
- Provides external sector assessment of 30 of the world’s largest economies based on their 2024 data.
- Focuses on the significant widening of global current account balances in 2024 and developments in the international monetary system.
- Includes three main chapters: external positions and policies; international monetary system monitoring; and 2024 individual economy assessments.
Chapter 1: External Positions and Policies — Key Findings
- Current accounts in major economies diverged significantly in 2024, widening global current account balances by 0.6 percentage points of world GDP.
- Staff assessment suggests that excess current account balances account for about two-thirds of the widening.
- The assessed increase in excess current account balances is the largest in a decade.
- Major economies driving the increase: China, the United States, and the euro area.
- Rapid and globally sizable increase in excess current account balances in major economies can generate significant negative cross-border spillovers.
- Projections/scenarios noted:
- In 2025 and over the medium term, a delay in macroeconomic adjustments to correct the post-pandemic domestic macro imbalances could result in continued current account divergence in major economies.
- Addressing domestic imbalances could bring about a convergence of major current account balances.
Chapter 2: International Monetary System — Key Points
- Over several decades the IMS has remained broadly stable and centered on the US dollar, despite momentous global changes.
- Stability has been accompanied by rising asymmetries between the global economic and monetary system as economies deepened specialization in trade or finance, while the US dollar is used as the primary global currency across various areas.
- Recent geopolitical and economic developments could weaken this stability, warranting recurrent monitoring of the evolving system.
- This chapter is the first in a planned series of periodic monitoring of the IMS; it:
- Documents historical developments.
- Provides conceptual foundations.
- Proposes indices to track key trends in the IMS.
Chapter 3: 2024 Individual Economy Assessments — Methods and Focus
- Uses a wide range of methods to form an integrated and multilaterally consistent view of economies’ external sector positions.
- Methods grounded in the latest vintage of the External Balance Assessment, developed by the IMF to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates.
- Model estimates and associated discussions on policy distortions are complemented by a holistic view of other external indicators.
- Policy discussion highlights policies and reforms that contribute to convergence toward (or maintenance of) external balance.
Key Statistics and Exact Figures
- 30 (number of largest economies assessed)
- 2024 (data year used for assessments)
- 0.6 percentage points of world GDP (widening of global current account balances in 2024)
- about two-thirds (share of the widening attributed to excess current account balances)
- the largest in a decade (relative magnitude of assessed increase in excess current account balances)
- 2025 (year referenced for near-term scenarios and monitoring)
External Sector Report: Global Imbalances in a Shifting World, July 2025
Content in this bundle
- Chapter 1 Data
- Chapter 2 Data
- Chapter 1
- Chapter 2
- Chapter 2 Annex
- Chapter 3
- Full Report
- CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL PROSPECTS AND POLICIES
- CHAPTER 2 THE GREAT TIGHTENING: INSIGHTS FROM THE RECENT INFLATION EPISODE