IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), International Financial Contagion, May 1999--Contents

World Economic Outlook, May 1, 1999

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IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), International Financial Contagion, May 1999--Contents

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Michael Mussa on the World Economic Outlook
• Published: May 1, 1999
• Series: World Economic Outlook

Overview and purpose

• The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries.
• It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects.
• It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
• Publication date indicated: May 1999.

Main chapters and topics (Table of Contents)

• Assumptions and Conventions
• The World Economic Outlook Database
• Preface

• Chapter I. World Economic Outlook and Policy Responses to the Global Slowdown (210k pdf file)
  • A New Phase in the Global Crisis, and Remaining Risks
  • Latin America: Addressing the Brazilian Crisis and Meeting Other Adjustment Needs
  • Policy Failures in Russia and Effects on Neighboring Countries
  • Japan: Seeking a Turnaround
  • Asia and the Pacific: Toward Recovery
  • Africa and the Middle East: Uneven Spillovers from Global Slowdown
  • North America: How Long Can the United States Remain the Main Engine of Global Growth?
  • Europe: A New Currency and Other Challenges
  • Boxes:
  • 1.1 Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Advanced Economies
  • 1.2 Potential Macroeconomic Implications of the Year 2000 Computer Bug
  • 1.3 Are There Dangers of Increasing Protection?
  • Tables:
  • Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  • Selected Developing Countries: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  • Countries in Transition: Real GDP and Consumer Prices
  • 1.4 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment Rates
  • 1.5 Major Industrial Countries: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
  • Figures:
  • Global Indicators
  • World Industrial Production
  • Financing Conditions for Emerging Markets
  • Selected European Countries, Japan, and the United States: Indicators of Consumer and Business Confidence

• Chapter II. Global Repercussions of the Crises in Emerging Markets and Other Conjunctural Issues (294k pdf file)
  • Brazil's Financial Crisis: Origins and Likely Economic Consequences
  • Whither Russia?
  • Financial Flows in the Wake of the Brazilian Crisis and the Sustainability of External Imbalances
  • Foreign Exchange and Financial Markets: The Impact of Brazil's Devaluation and Other Developments
  • Why Are Some Emerging Market Countries Relatively Unaffected by the Financial Crisis?
  • How Are Commodity Exporters Adjusting to the Crisis?
  • What Are the Implications of the U.S. Saving-Investment Imbalance?
  • Boxes and tables include:
  • 2.1 Exchange Rate Crashes and Inflation: Lessons for Brazil
  • 2.2 Measuring Household Saving in the United States
  • 2.3 Russian Federation: Recent Macroeconomic Developments and 1999 Baseline Scenario
  • 2.4 Gross Private Financing to Emerging Market Economies
  • 2.5 Emerging Market Economies: Net Capital Flows
  • 2.6 Selected Economies: Current Account Positions
  • 2.7 Selected Countries: Estimates of Underlying Current Account Balances
  • 2.8 China, India, and Sub-Saharan Africa: International Trade and Financial Links
  • 2.9 Selected Asian Economies: Macroeconomic Indicators
  • 2.10 Africa: Selected Indicators
  • 2.11 Commodity Exporters and Importers: Impact of Large Commodity Price Swings
  • 2.12 Oil-Exporting Emerging Market Economies: Impact of Oil Price Decline
  • 2.13 Alternative Scenario: Simulation Results
  • Figures include indicators on industrial output recovery, current account changes, trade developments, net foreign assets, nominal interest rates, equity prices, effective exchange rates, short-term interest rates, Brady bond spreads, bilateral U.S. dollar exchange rates, developing countries’ equity prices, Russia: exchange rate and tradable debt, developing countries’ external debt by maturity and type of creditor, prices of crude petroleum and nonfuel commodities, and other macro-financial linkages.

• Chapter III. International Financial Contagion (189k pdf file)
  • The Changing Nature of Currency Crises
  • Assessing the Role of Fundamentals and Contagion in Recent Crisis Episodes
  • Contagion and Currency Crashes
  • Some Policy Implications
  • Boxes and indicators:
  • 3.1 Recent Experience with Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations
  • Net Capital Flows to Developing Countries, by Component
  • 3.2 Incidence of Currency Crises During the 1990s
  • 3.3 Frequency of Crises by Country Group
  • 3.4 Selected Countries: Short-Term Interest Rates
  • 3.5 Selected Countries: Stock Prices
  • 3.6 Emerging Market Yield Spreads
  • 3.7 Common Shocks: Interest Rates, Output Growth, Exchange Rates, and Trade Prices
  • 3.8 Characteristics of Countries Vulnerable to Contagion
  • 3.9 Countries Vulnerable to Contagion: Characteristics of Composite Indicators
  • 3.10 Selected Countries: Indicators of Vulnerability

• Chapter IV. Chronic Unemployment in the Euro Area: Causes and Cures (211k pdf file)
  • Underlying Causes
  • Cures: An Integrated Approach
  • Overcoming Obstacles to Labor Market Reform
  • Boxes and annexes:
  • 4.1 Labor Market Slack: Concepts and Measurement
  • 4.2 EMU and European Labor Markets
  • 4.3 Labor Markets--An Analytical Framework
  • 4.4 The OECD Jobs Study
  • 4.5 Marginal Effective Tax Rates (METR) in Selected Industrial Countries,1994–95
  • 4.6 Implementation of OECD Jobs Study Recommendations
  • 4.7 Euro Area and the United States: Participation and Employment Rates
  • 4.8 Euro Area and the United States: Size of the Welfare State
  • Comparative figures and tables on wage bargaining, labor market regulation, unemployment benefit generosity (1994–96), overall tax wedges (1994), productivity growth, real labor cost and employment, union density, participation and employment rates, and other labor market performance metrics.

• Annex. Summing Up by the Acting Chairman; World Economic Outlook, Executive Board Meeting; Statistical Appendix (338k pdf file)
  • Assumptions
  • Data and Conventions
  • Classification of Countries
  • List of Tables covering:
  • Output (Tables 1–7)
  • Inflation (Tables 8–13)
  • Financial Policies (Tables 14–21)
  • Foreign Trade (Tables 22–26)
  • Current Account Transactions (Tables 27–32)
  • Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables 33–37)
  • External Debt and Debt Service (Tables 38–43)
  • Flow of Funds (Table 44)
  • Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Tables 45–46)
  • Selected Topics and World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–99

Formats and access notes

• Individual chapter PDF file sizes listed:
  • Chapter I: 210k pdf file
  • Chapter II: 294k pdf file
  • Chapter III: 189k pdf file
  • Chapter IV: 211k pdf file
  • Annex: 338k pdf file
• Tip: Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view PDF files.

IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO), International Financial Contagion, May 1999 — Contents

Content in this bundle

• _0599annpdf — World Economic Outlook Statistical Appendix
  • _0599annpdf — World Economic Outlook Statistical Appendix (Markdown version)
  • _0599annpdf — World Economic Outlook Statistical Appendix (PDF)
• _0599ch1pdf
  • _0599ch1pdf (Markdown version)
  • _0599ch1pdf (PDF)
• _0599ch2pdf — Chapter excerpts
  • _0599ch2pdf — Chapter excerpts (Markdown version)
  • _0599ch2pdf — Chapter excerpts (PDF)
• The Changing Nature of Currency Crises
  • The Changing Nature of Currency Crises (Markdown version)
  • The Changing Nature of Currency Crises (PDF)
• Chronic Unemployment in the Euro Area: Causes and Cures
  • Chronic Unemployment in the Euro Area: Causes and Cures (Markdown version)
  • Chronic Unemployment in the Euro Area: Causes and Cures (PDF)

References

• WEO Database April 1999
• Transcript
• Other issues of the World Economic Outlook
• WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present
• Research at the IMF
• Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.
• Modify your profile
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
• Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr
• Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm
• Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo
• Asia and Pacific
• Europe
• Middle East and Central Asia
• Sub-Saharan Africa
• Western Hemisphere
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb
• Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty
• https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development
• More Publications
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