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Anticipating Crises: Model Behavior or Stampeding Herds?
Thursday, November 1, 2001, 2:30-4:00 p.m.
International Monetary Fund
Meeting Halls A and B
700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, DC

Transcript of the proceedings

Demand within the international community for an early warning system to predict the onset of currency crises has continued to grow-not least since the Mexican and Asian crises of the last decade. But how realistic is this objective? To what extent have such models succeeded where others have failed? Even if we develop a system that looks as if it would have been successful in the past, can we be confident that it will still be viable in the future? These and other questions will be addressed by the following panelists:

    Carmen Reinhart, Senior Policy Advisor, IMF Research Department (Moderator)

    Peter Garber, Global Strategist, Deutsche Bank

    Kristin Forbes, MIT and U.S. Treasury

    Eduardo Borensztein, Chief, Strategic Issues Division, IMF Research Department