Transcript of a Press Conference by Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department - December 19, 1997

Ordering Information

Other issues of the World Economic Outlook

WEO Selected Topics, 1995 - present

Research at the IMF

World Economic Outlook

World Economic Outlook

Crisis in Asia: Regional and Global Implications
December 1997

©1997 International Monetary Fund

The World Economic Outlook presents the IMF staff’s analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF’s global surveillance activities.
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  Assumptions and Conventions
Chapter I.
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Chapter II.
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Buildup to Present Difficulties
      Successful Performance
Changes in External Environment
Macroeconomic Management and Exchange Arrangements
Financial Sector and Other Structural Weaknesses


  1. Overconsumption Versus Overinvestment: The Crises in Mexico and Thailand Compared

  1. Selected Asian Economies: Capital Flows
  2. International Bank Lending to East Asia
  1. Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP
  2. Selected Asian Economies: Consumer Price Inflation
  3. Selected Asian Economies: Current Account Balances
  4. Selected Asian Economies: Sectoral Financial Balances
  5. Selected Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
  6. Selected Asian Economies: Exchange Rates
  7. Selected Asian Economies: Export Market Growth
  8. Selected Asian Economies: Growth in Export Revenues
  9. Selected Asian Economies: Foreign Exchange Reserves
    Box 1. Mexico and Thailand: Private Consumption and Private Gross Fixed Investment

Chapter III.
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Onset of the Crisis and Its Evolution
  Phase I (January–April 1997): Lead-Up to the Crisis in Thailand
Phase II (May–Beginning of July 1997): The Thai Crisis
Phase III (Beginning of July–Mid-October 1997): Crisis Engulfs the ASEAN-4
Phase IV (Mid-October–Mid-December 1997): Spillovers Across Global Financial Markets


  1. Selected Economies: Bilateral U.S. Dollar Exchange Rates
  2. Selected Economies: Three-Month Interest Rates
  3. Selected Economies: Equity Prices
  4. Selected Yield Spreads over U.S. Treasury Bonds
  5. Selected Economies: Secondary Market Yield Spreads on U.S. Dollar-Denominated Eurobonds
  6. Selected World Equity Prices
  7. Selected Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates and Bond Yields
  8. Emerging Market Economies: Private Market Financing
Chapter IV.
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Economic Developments and Financial Conditions
    in the Advanced Economies


  1. Japan: Financial Sector Fragilities and the Stock Market


  1. Major Industrial Countries: Nominal Interest Rates
  2. Major Industrial Countries: Yield Curves
  3. Major Industrial Countries: Unemployment Rates
  4. Selected European Union Countries and the United States: Indicators of Consumer Confidence
  5. Selected European Union Countries and the United States: Indicators of Business Confidence
Chapter V.
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The Global Outlook: How Much Has It Changed?
  The Revised Baseline
Alternative Scenarios


  1. Effects of the East Asian Financial Crises on Trade with Industrial Countries
  2. Alternative Scenarios: Assumptions and Interpretation


  1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
  2. Revisions to World Economic Outlook Projections for Selected Asian Countries
  3. Major Industrial Countries: Actual and Structural Budget Balances for General Government
  4. Developing Countries, Countries in Transition, and Newly Industrialized Economies: Net Capital Flows
  5. Overview of Current Account Projections
  6. Selected Countries: GDP Growth Forecasts
  7. Alternative Scenarios: Some Simulation Results
    Box 3. Industrial Countries: Shares of Trade with Emerging Market Economies and Ratios of Trade to GDP
Chapter VI.
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Conclusions and Policy Considerations

  1. Policy Responses to Exchange Market Crises


    Box 5. Short-Term Interest Rates in Selected Crisis Episodes
Statistical Appendix
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Statistical Appendix
List of Tables
Selected Topics  
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World Economic Outlook and Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics, 1992–97