2021年9月
Three Days at Camp David: How a Secret Meeting in 1971 Transformed the Global Economy
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Jeffrey E. Garten
Three Days at Camp David: How a Secret Meeting in 1971 Transformed the Global Economy
HarperCollins, New York, NY, 2021,
448 pp., $23.99
“Demography is destiny” is an oft-cited phrase that suggests the size, growth, and structure of a nation’s population determines its long-term social, economic, and political fabric. The phrase highlights the role of demographics in shaping many complex challenges and opportunities societies face, including several pertinent to economic growth and development.
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Nevertheless, it is an overstatement to say that demography determines all, as it downplays the fact that both demographic trajectories and their development implications are responsive to economic incentives; to policy and institutional reforms; and to changes in technology, cultural norms, and behavior.
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Although global income per capita more than doubled, life expectancy increased by 16 years, and primary school enrollment became nearly universal among children during 1960–2000, rapid population growth poses myriad challenges that are both privately and publicly daunting. These challenges include the need for more food, clothing, housing, education, and infrastructure; the absorption of sizable numbers into productive employment; and more strenuous environmental protection. Although the explosive nature of global population growth is abating in relative terms, decade-on-decade increases remain sizable and are taking place from ever more populated starting points.
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Fair, Ray C. 2018. “Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2018 Update.” Yale Department of Economics Paper, Yale University, New Haven, CT.
Goodman, Peter S., Katie Thomas, Sui-Lee Wee, and Jeffrey Gettleman. 2010. “A New Front for Nationalism: The Global Battle against a Virus.” New York Times, April 10.
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