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More Work is Needed to Make Big Banks Resolvable

March 18, 2024
Last year's turmoil showed that further progress is required in a number of areas to ensure banks aren’t too big to fail.

Uganda: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda

March 18, 2024
Economic recovery continues to gain strength following a rapid decline in inflation, favorable agriculture and robust industrial and services activity. Fiscal financing and foreign portfolio flows are facing headwinds amid tight global financial conditions and the passage of the Anti-Homosexuality Act (AHA) in May 2023. The authorities are implementing fiscal consolidation to contain vulnerabilities, maintaining a moderately tight monetary stance in the face of upside risks to inflation and undertaking reforms to improve governance and reduce corruption.

Somalia: Technical Assistance Report-Consumer Price Index Mission (May 3–14, 2023)

March 18, 2024
A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted by the statistics department of the IMF in May 2023 to assist the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics (SNBS) with updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Preliminary consumer basket was created during the mission with expanded coverage, and the higher aggregate weights were calculated using the updated classification of individual consumption by purpose (COICOP 2018). Somali Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS) 2022 was used as a main source for calculating preliminary CPI weights. The index compilation methodology was reviewed and recommendations for improvements were provided.

Jordan: Technical Assistance Report-Developing Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process SRP Framework

March 15, 2024
The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) is currently assisting the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) in enhancing its risk-based supervision through the development of a Supervisory Review and Evaluation SRP framework inspired from European Central Bank (ECB) methodology. The Technical Assistance TA mission is part of a multi-step medium-term project. The TA mission aimed to design, in coordination with CBJ, a progressive multi-step roadmap defining the major milestones for a full implementation of SRP. The mission noted that several dimensions should be taken into consideration when implementing the SRP, most notably bridging the data gap by building a fully-fledged supervisory risk database through a dedicated IT project, assessing whether the current organization of the Banking Supervisory Department should be adjusted, and progressively cover all material sources of risks in the SRP.

Efficient Economic Rent Taxation under a Global Minimum Corporate Tax

March 15, 2024
The international agreement on a corporate minimum tax is a milestone in global corporate tax arrangements. The minimum tax disturbs the equivalence between otherwise equivalent forms of efficient economic rent taxation: cash-flow tax and allowance for corporate equity. The marginal effective tax rate initially declines as the statutory tax rate rises, reaching zero where the minimum tax is inapplicable, and increases thereafter. This kink occurs at a lower statutory rate under cash-flow taxation. We relax the assumption of full loss offset; provide a routine for computing effective rates under different designs; and discuss policy implications of the minimum tax.

Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

March 15, 2024
We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

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