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Where Do We Go From Here?
In normal recessions, things turn around predictably. But the current recession has been far from normal and the recovery that is starting will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries, if it is to be sustained.
Jeffrey A. Frankel
In the sometimes faddish world of international monetary economics, concepts are hot, then they are not. A leading international economist nominates five concepts that recently were virtually conventional wisdom but now are “out,” and five that have gained new stature.
The most dangerous phase of the financial crisis that began in 2007 seems to be past. Now attention is turning to the shortcomings in the financial architecture that contributed to the outbreak of the crisis, and what needs to be done to correct them.
Carlo Cottarelli and José Viñals
Although it is still too early for governments to retreat from policies that fight the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s, countries must begin now to devise economic strategies to accompany recovery when that takes hold.
If the newly frugal U.S. consumer will no longer be the driver of world economy, then new sources of demand must be found. Will they come from Asia or other areas more known for saving than spending? Or from newly galvanized investments?
Benjamin J. Cohen
The U.S. dollar has reigned supreme as the international reserve currency since World War II. Will that run come to an end as confidence in the greenback is eroded by persistent current account deficits and rising debt? If so, what will replace it?
The global economic crisis has had a devastating effect on financial markets and institutions. That has prompted the Obama administration to propose the most sweeping overhaul of financial regulation since the New Deal policies of the 1930s, when the world also faced an economic crisis.
They are from six countries and lived very different lives—an auto worker in Japan; a dock worker in Argentina; a real estate agent in Spain; an investment banker in the United States; a farmer in Côte d’Ivoire; and a single parent in Haiti. But all suffered ill effects from the global economic crisis.
Atish R. Ghosh, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Natalia Tamirisa
The global financial turmoil has rekindled the interest of both policymakers and the general public in early warning systems that could anticipate financial crises. But what alarms can such systems realistically sound? How would they work? And would they be effective?
Also In This Issue
Olivier Lambert and Elizabeth Littlefield
Across the developing world, the falling costs, ease of use, and ever-expanding reach of mobile telephones are enabling countries to bypass what was once an unavoidable stage of development: the establishment of a national mail service and of land-based telecommunications.